Evaluation Of Ecological Vulnerability In Jingle County Based On SPCA-OWA

Ecological vulnerability assessment is an important means of regional ecological environment management and improvement.In view of the fact that China is one of the countries with the largest distribution area,the most vulnerable ecological types and the most obvious ecological vulnerability in the world,the assessment of ecological vulnerability has always been the focus of academic research and attention.However,most of the current ecological vulnerability assessment methods are simple weighted overlay analysis,lack of consideration of ecological vulnerability changes under multiple decision-making risks,and cannot comprehensively reflect the evaluation results affected by different decision-making preferences.Based on this,this paper first uses spatial principal component analysis(SPCA)to dynamically invert the ecological vulnerability of the study area and analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of ecological vulnerability in the study area.With the help of ordered weighted average(OWA)algorithm,the results of ecological vulnerability under different decision-making risk coefficients are simulated and compared,in order to provide a more comprehensive reference for decision makers to coordinate regional development and ecological construction.This paper takes Jingle County as the research object,based on the interaction between man-made and natural factors,14 indices were selected which can represent the human activities,social economy,vegetation,meteorology,soil and terrain landforms to construct the ecological vulnerability evaluation index system for Jingle County.Taking the 30 m grid as the evaluation unit,the ecological vulnerability of jingle County in 2007-2017 was comprehensively evaluated,the characteristics of the spatio-temporal evolution of ecological vulnerability were also revealed.Finally,the OWA multi-criteria algorithm model was used to simulate and compare the results of ecological vulnerability assessments in Jingle County under seven decision risk settings to provide decision-making references for the study of regional overall ecological construction and economic development.The results showed that:(1)The ecological vulnerability index of jingle county showed a gradualincrease trend of 2007 to 2017.Spatially,the areas with lower elevations in the areas along the Fen River and along the banks of the river have higher levels of ecological fragility.The basically trend of "light to severe evolution,severe to extreme evolution" shown in space.The ecological vulnerability levels in the study area generally increased and the ecological situation was severe.(2)The ecological fragility of jingle county is in the middle to severe fragility state.The formation and development of its ecological fragility is the result of natural factors and human factors.Terrain fluctuation degree,soil erosion degree,per capita cultivated land area,annual precipitation and per capita GDP are the main factors affecting the ecological fragility of the research area.(3)Using the OWA multi-criteria evaluation method,the ecological vulnerability assessment results of the study area under different decision-making risk coefficients were analyzed.At the same time,based on the rational risk interval of decision-makers,three possible policy scenarios are set up,which are ecological sustainable oriented,maintaining the status quo oriented and ecological unsustainable oriented.Compared with the results of SPCA evaluation,it is feasible to use OWA method to evaluate ecological vulnerability to a certain extent.