Study On Investment Income Evaluation Of Z Sewage Treatment Project

The BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer)mode of sewage treatment project can alleviate the financial pressure and solve some practical problems by attracting social capital to participate in the construction and operation of public utilities.In attracting the participation of social capital,especially private enterprises,the investment income is the focus.This paper studies investment income which the social capital concern especially in the investment decision-making stage of sewage treatment project,and demonstrates the economic benefits of the case project by using the method of Quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,to provide a scientific reference for the decision-making of project investment.First,determine the benchmark rate of return.The benchmark rate of return is the comparison parameter of the project investment income,which is very important.The CAPM model is used to calculate the cost of equity capital,and the WACC is used to calculate the Weighted average cost of capital,the reference benchmark rate of return for investment income analysis in this case is determined.Secondly,the static analysis method and the dynamic analysis method are used to calculate the total return rate of the static index and the internal return rate of the dynamic index.Because both static analysisand dynamic analysis have certain inherent defects,static analysis does not take into account the time value of money and uncertainty factors,and dynamic analysis often uses estimated fixed value,no consideration was given to the impact of future uncertainty changes on the project.Because the sewage treatment project is a BOT project,the franchise period is 28 years,the future uncertainty is great,so this paper introduces the Monte Carlo method to make up for the former two methods.By analyzing the influence of uncertain factors,construction investment,business cost and business income are selected as risk variables,the risk variables that affect the internal rate of return(IRR)of the project investment are then randomly sampled using a large number of Monte Carlo method,a process that is entirely computerized to avoid the influence of human factors,the interval probability of internal rate of return,the average IRR value and the probability of IRR index higher than the benchmark return are calculated.Finally,through the comparison analysis of the above three evaluation results,it is concluded that the internal rate of return calculated by the Monte Carlo method is more reasonable and more valuable for reference.