Research On The Safety Evaluation System Of Land-Island Transport For Passengers In Liaoning Province

Land-Island transport for passengers is the only way for residents who live on islands located in Liaoning province to enter or leave the island and is also the only way for tourists who enter the island for tourism.Security level is the most basic and important matter for land-island transport for passengers.Safely operation of land-island transport for passengers involves many factors such as staff members,passengers,ships,facilities and equipment,weather condition,supervision and so on,which filled with randomness and uncertainty.At present,the land-island transport for passengers in Liaoning province is still in the development stage,and in some areas there are some problems such as poor infrastructure,outdated ships and incomplete management,which may bring potential safety hazard to the system.Therefore,it is necessary to build a sound safety evaluation system and a scientific evaluation model,which can provide reference for the safety management of land-island transport for passengers in Liaoning province in the future.Firstly,this thesis overviewed the relevant domestic and foreign literatures about safety research of transport for passengers by waterway from two aspects:influence factors and model construction.On this basis,the characteristics of the land-island transport for passengers in Liaoning province and the factors that affect the system’s safety were analyzed.And created an initially evaluation index database,then the indexes were selected by qualitatively and quantitatively methods.Secondly,because of the shortcomings in the current literature:As the widely used way of the determination of the indexes’weight,AHP relies on much strong subjective factors.Here factor analysis method was used to get weight of the indexes to reduce the subjective impact.According to the commonality of initial indexes included in each common factor,summarized five common factors:management,facilities.person,ship and environment.and constructed the safety evaluation system of land-island transport for passengers.Thirdly,due to the safety evaluation of land-island transport for passengers can be considered as a multi-attribute decision-making problem with uncertainty.Based on evidence reasoning method,this thesis constructed the safety evaluation model of land-island transport for passengers in Liaoning province to reduce the influence of uncertainty in the evaluation process and ensure the results with scientific and reasonable.Finally,an empirical analysis of the constructed indexes system and evaluation model is carried out based on IDS software.Seven routes in Liaoning province were selected for evaluation.The results show the utility value of security level about the seven routes evaluated is between 0.54 and 0.72,According to the evaluation results from superior to inferior,the security level of the routes ranked 1-4 is higher,and the security level of the routes ranked 5-7 is general,Among them,the passenger traffic has a large difference of different routes in Dalian,and the security level of the routes also has a large difference.In terms of management and facilities,the security level of the routes with large traffic is better than the routes with small traffic.In terms of person and ship factors,except the impact of individual indexes,the evaluation results of each route with little difference.In terms of environment factors,affected by the strong winds,the utility value of security level about the routes in Dalian is significantly lower than the routes in Dandong and Huludao.