New Energy Vehicle Development For China's Refined Oil Market Impact Research

In recent years,in order to cope with the problems of energy security and air pollution caused by the rapid increase of domestic automobile ownership,the Chinese government has solved the problem of people's demand for automobiles and vigorously developed new energy vehicles.According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Public Security,777,000 new energy vehicles were registered in China in 2017,an increase of 270,000 vehicles over the previous year,an increase rate of more than 50%.The number of new energy vehicles in China has increased from less than 20,000 in 2012 to 1.8 million vehicles in 2017.The scale of new energy vehicles has expanded rapidly.As new energy vehicles do not use gasoline,diesel oil and other automotive fuel,and automotive fuel as the largest consumption area of China's refined oil market,accounting for more than 80%of the total consumption of refined oil market,with the rapid increase of the scale of new energy vehicles,new energy vehicles will inevitably crowded into the traditional fuel automotive market,affecting China's refined oil products.Market development in the future.In addition,the Chinese government has started a study on the stop-sale schedule of fuel vehicles,which will undoubtedly accelerate the replacement of new energy vehicles for traditional vehicles,and thus expand the impact of new energy vehicles on China's oil products market.On the basis of summarizing the research status at home and abroad,this paper analyzes and summarizes the development status of China's refined oil market and new energy vehicles,summarizes the development characteristics and existing problems of China's refined oil market,analyzes in detail the factors affecting the development of China's new energy vehicles,and opens them through collection.GM(1,1)grey forecasting model is established based on the authoritative data of new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles.The Forecasting Research on the ownership of new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles in China is carried out by using MATLAB programming,which provides data support for the subsequent analysis of the impact of new energy vehicles on China's oil product market.Then the ADF series stationarity test and Johansen cointegration test are carried out for the three time series of new energy vehicle ownership,traditional vehicle ownership and refined oil consumption in China by Eviews software,which proves that the variables have cointegration relationship and long-term equilibrium relationship,and through Granger causality analysis,the traditional Chinese automobile ownership and refined oil consumption are proved.Car ownership and new energy vehicle ownership have a one-way causal relationship with oil consumption.Traditional car ownership is one of the reasons for long-term changes in oil consumption,and also has a certain impact in the short term;otherwise,the impact is not obvious.In addition,as the new energy automobile market is relatively small compared with the traditional automobile market,there is no interaction with the product oil market.But with the growth of the new energy automobile market,the traditional automobile market is gradually replaced,and the total sales volume of the product oil will gradually decrease.If the Chinese government decides to completely stop selling traditional fuel vehicles by 2030,the oil product market will lose its main growth momentum,resulting in a substantial reduction in the total consumption of oil products.Finally,according to the problems existing in the development of China's refined oil market and the conclusions of this paper,from the perspective of the employees of the refined oil sales industry,some countermeasures are given to deal with the current overcapacity of China's refined oil market and the lack of future growth momentum.