Analysis Of Changes In China's Refined Oil Consumption Structure

The consumption of refined oil products involves the needs of production and life in various social and economic sectors in China,and it is an important secondary energy source in China.As China's economic structure gradually transforms from industrialization to a service-or:iented society,the role of industrial mamufacturing in driving diesel consumption is weakened.At the same time,the substitution effect of new energy such as natural gas on gasoline and diesel consumption in the automobile market began to appear.In addition,the rapid development of China's high-speed rail has a diversion effect on air transportation,and it also has an impact on aviation kerosene consumption.Therefore,research on the changes in China's refined oil consumption structere is particularly important.First of all,this paper sorted out the current situation of China's refined oil consumption,and also elaborated on the overall consumption of refined oil products from the economic environment,policy environment and market environment,and then,analyzed the characteristics of changes in the structure of refined oil consumption from the perspectives of industry,sub-region,import and export.Then,this Paper combined with the consumption characteristics and trends of gasoline,diesel and kerosene,extracted the data series of private car ownership,transportation industry output value,natural gas consumption,water transportation volume,railway passenger turnover,air passenger turnover,and disposable income of residents,respectively,established different multiple linear regression models,and conduct stationarity test,cointegration test and error correction,to find out the main factors influencing the refined oil products consumption and its associated degree.Then,this paper used MATLAB to establish the gray prediction model GM(1,1),predicted the demand for China's refined oil and gasoline,diesel and kerosene in the next three years,and analyzed the trend of changes in the structure of refined oil consumption.The research results show that:(1)China's refined oil consumption grows rapidly first,and then the growth rate slows down;(2)Transportation is the main force of refined oil consumption;(3)Due to economic transformation and environmental protection pressure,diesel consumption has entered a downward channel;(4)Due to market optimization and consumption upgrading,gasoline consumption has been maintaining a steady upward trend for a long time;(5)Due to the diversion effect of high-speed rail competition on air transportation,the growth of kerosene consumption has slowed down.In view of the trend of China's refined oil consumption structure and the forecast of future consumption,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:(1)Optimize the structure of refined oil tax system,promote the low carbonization adjustment of refined oil consumption structure;(2)Implement reasonable subsidies for gasoline vehicles from the enterprise side to mitigate the impact of new energy on gasoline;(3)Allocate the impact of refining capacity scientifically,and adjust the contradiction between production and sales of refined oil products from the supply side;(4)Reduce aviation fuel surcharges,and reduce the diversion impact of railway transportation on aviation kerosene.