Study On The Evolution And Sustainable Development Of Oasis City In Arid Area

Land provides material energy for human beings,which reflects the development process of social economy and is also restricted by natural and economic factors.Since the reform and opening up,the economic construction of alar city has made remarkable achievements,but at the same time,a series of ecological environment,such as natural forest land degradation,soil salinization and pollution aggravation,threaten the sustainable development of the city.It can provide reference for the land use,urban planning and ecological environment construction of alar city.Based on the TM images of 2006,2014 and 2019 in Alar City,according to LUCC theory,GIS theory,ecological footprint model and Ca Markov model,with the help of ArcGIS 10.0,SPSS,idirisi and other software,combined with long-term statistical data,this paper analyzes the land-use change and its driving factors and sustainability The continuous development and other aspects are analyzed,and the CA Markov model is constructed to predict the land use pattern of the study area in 2024.The conclusions of this paper include:(1)The analysis of land use change showd that: from 2006 to 2019,the land use structure of Alar City Research Area has undergone significant changes.With the continuous acceleration of the urban process,construction land,transportation land,and forest land have increased significantly,and the area of cultivated land has continued to decrease.In contrast,the area of grassland and water has changed little..(2)Analysis of land transfer trend: other land,cultivated land and forest land have more mutual conversion,while construction land,transportation land and water body have less mutual conversion.Cultivated land was mainly converted into construction land and transportation land;grassland was mainly converted into construction land.Forest land was mainly converted into construction land and transportation land;other land was mainly converted into construction land,cultivated land and water bodies.From the perspective of transfer,the water body was mainly converted from forest land and other land;cultivated land was mainly converted from other land;construction land and transportation land were mainly converted from cultivated land,forest land and other land(3)The influencing factors of land use change in the study area were analyzed by SPSS software.The main factors were population,GDP,fixed asset investment and other economic and social factors.Thechange of land use in the study area was affected by many factors.The change of land use was the result of natural and human factors.(4)Sustainable development evaluation based on Ecological Footprint Model: the per capita ecological footprint of alar research area was growing,and the increase of fossil energy consumption was the main reason for the growing ecological footprint.In terms of ecological capacity,it also showd a trend of continuous growth.In terms of ecological surplus / deficit,except for the construction land which has always had ecological surplus,other land types show ecological deficit problems.The ecological deficit of fossil energy land was the largest,and fossil energy consumption was the main source of ecological pressure in Alar City.At the same time,the ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP was decreasing year by year,which showd that the technology level of alar city was improving continuously this year,and the utilization efficiency of resources was improving continuously.The ecological pressure in the research area of alar city was always at a high level;the ecological occupation index was also constantly rising,and the ecological and economic coordination index was always less than 1,which was always at the lowest level,with poor economic coordination,which affects the sustainable development of social economy.Therefore,in accordance with the requirements of the scientific outlook on development,efforts should be made to coordinate speed,structure and efficiency,population,resources and environment,investment,consumption and export,urban and rural and regional development,so as to promote sound and rapid economic development and realize sustainable development of alar city.(5)CA Markov model was used to predict the land use pattern of the study area in 2024.The results showd that the land use change trend in 2019-2024 was similar to that in the earlier stage,which showd the continuous growth of construction land and traffic land,the continuous reduction of cultivated land and other land areas,and the basic dynamic balance of forest land and grass land volume.It showd that the urbanization process of alar city will continue,the urban area will continue to expand,the cultivated land and unused land will be occupied by construction land and traffic land,and the land use in the study area will be more balanced and scientific.