Research On Land Use/Land Cover's Driving Force And Prediction In Hechi City

As with human impact on land use, problems about environment and resources resulted from it have attracted people's attention. By selecting the land use data and related statistical data of Hechi City from 1999 to 2008, this article statistically analyzes the change of land use in Hechi City in recent ten years, reveals the driving forces which have affected the land use change/cover in the past ten years. It is a great significance to rational use and protection of land resources of Hechi City, to the achievement of the sustainable use of land resources in Karst mountain areas of Guangxi's western mountain areas. The main contents are as follows:1. Some mathematic models are used to research the change of land use and land cover from 1999 to 2008 in Hechi City, such as land-use dynamic degree model, the land-use change range model, the composite index of land-use degree, the relative change in the type rate of land use. The results show that seen from the change range of land-use, the greatest growth is transportation, the smallest growth is forest land growth, the sharpest declines is other agricultural land; seen from the dynamic degree of land use, other land was changing fast from 1999 to 2008; seen from the composite index of land-use degree, the rate of the total land use degree is 0.001, in a period of developing; seen from regional differences in land-use, there are some differences in land-use types of Hechi City. On the whole, the biggest difference is in water conservancy facilities, and the smallest difference is in other land.2. The research of driving forces on the change of land use in Hechi City. Combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, by means of the statistical software SPSS, using its correlative analysis and principal components analysis, choosing some variants related to economics and social to pursue the driving forces of the land-use change in Hechi City. The results indicate that the social and human factors are the main factors affecting the change of land-use in Hechi City, including the population growth, the development of economy and transportation, the level of increased urbanization increased.3. Prediction of the land use change of Hechi. By means of the Gray Model to predict the coming years'change of land use, the prediction shows that arable land,meadow,other agricultural land and unused land are decreasing, and garden plot,forest land,settlements and mining,transportation and water conservancy facilities are increasing.4. Sustainable land use countermeasures of Hechi. According to the analysis of driving forces of Hechi, make some suggestions are made for Hechi: to optimize the land use structure, to control population scale, and to pay attention to ecological environmental governance and so on.