| The largest organic carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems is the forest ecosystem,which not only regulates the global carbon balance,but also plays a fundamental role in responding to climate change.However,how to measure and how the basic role of the forest has been an important direction for many experts and scholars.In recent years,research on forest vegetation?carbon storage and spatial distribution has not stopped,and domestic and foreign scholars have achieved some good scientific research results in the research.However,at present,there are few achievements in studying the net carbon storage and potential of forests in the region,and the existing research on forest carbon storage potential does not take into account the duality of forests.It only analyzes from a single perspective,and cannot fully explore the carbon storage potential.Therefore,a comprehensive consideration of the forest's carbon storage function and carbon source function to estimate the forest's net carbon storage will be a new direction in the field of regional forest carbon storage estimationThis paper takes Jilin Province forest as the research object and explores how forestry enterprises can maximize the forest's emission reduction potential from the perspective of forest duality.First of all,this paper comprehensively summarizes the research on forest carbon storage and carbon emissions related literature.Most of the literature explores forest carbon storage from three aspects:forest age,trees and soil,while forest carbon emissions are only forest fires.Caused by that is,there are few literatures that analyze the current status of regional forests 'net carbon storage and management measures to increase emission reduction potential;Second,quantitative analysis of the current forest carbon storage and carbon emissions in Jilin Province,and based on sliding sum autoregression(ARIMA).The method predicts the trend of net carbon storage in the forests of Jilin Province in the next ten years.The results indicate that if carbon storage and carbon emissions are developed in a natural state without any management measures,then the net carbon storage in the forests of Jilin Province in the next ten years is only increased slightly;Again,the stepwise regression model was used to analyze the impact of eight variables such as forest fire damage area,afforestation area,and forestry output value on the net carbon storage of the forest.Among them,forest management area?forest stock and afforestation area are the main influencing factors to stimulate the increase of forest net carbon storage,while the area of fire and fire and the occurrence area of pests and diseases are the key factors to restrain the increase of forest net carbon storage;finally,the application of scenario analysis method to simulate the extent to which forestry enterprises can improve the potential of forest emission reduction in Jilin Province through management measures such as forest fires,pests and diseases,and stock volume.The results show that:if the forests in Jilin Province grow naturally in 2018-2030,under the circumstances,the net carbon storage will increase but the growth rate will be lower;under the fire control scenario,the net carbon storage will increase by 1.53 billion tons in 2030.At this time,the net carbon storage will be 2.04 times that of 2017,which is more than the natural conditions.under the scenario of controlling forest diseases,pests and rodents,the net carbon storage will be 4.715 million tons higher than that under natural conditions by 2030;under the scenario of controlling stocks,the unit storage in 2030 is 287.16 cubic meters per hectares,2.5 times that of 2017.Based on real and reliable experimental results,this paper proposes targeted emission reduction recommendations.At the same time,the research results of this paper can not only provide theoretical reference for the sustainable development of forestry enterprises in Jilin Province,but also have reference value for the development of other domestic forestry enterprises. |
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