Research On The Carbon Emission Trends And Emission Reduction Paths Of Chinese Industry Under The Carbon Peaking Goals

With the deepening of global industrialization,energy has become the cornerstone of global economic development,however,the excessive use of fossil energy has also produced a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions,causing a series of climate problems such as acid rain,haze,species extinction and global warming,which endanger the survival and security of human beings and the sustainable development of economy and society.In response to global climate change,countries around the world have held many climate conferences to discuss global climate governance,and China,as a responsible power,has also actively participated in global climate governance by introducing a series of energysaving policies and solemnly declaring at the 75 th UN General Assembly General Debate that "China will strive to reach peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060".As the pillar industry of China’s economic development,industry has supported China’s rapid economic growth while generating large amounts of CO2 emissions.Therefore,exploring the carbon reduction pathways of Chinese industry is of great practical significance to the achievement of China’s " carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goals and global climate governance.This paper firstly elaborates and analyzes the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Chinese industry and the development of industrial economy at this stage from four aspects: total amount,industry distribution,energy type and regional distribution.Then,the China industry-LEAP model is constructed by using the LEAP model.This model sets up the basic scenario and comprehensive scenario to simulate the CO2 emission trends and peak situation of Chinese industry from 2019 to 2035 without other policy intervention and under the comprehensive action of various measures,and on the basis of the comprehensive scenario,the sensitivity analysis of the peak value and peak time of Chinese industry CO2 emission in the future is carried out from four aspects: the level of economic development,industrial structure,the research and development speed of energy-saving technology and the power supply structure.The results show that under the basic scenario,the CO2 emissions of Chinese industry will increase annually,reaching 12.798 billion tons by 2035,and there will be no peak;Under the comprehensive scenario,the growth rate of CO2 emissions from Chinese industry has slowed down significantly,and will reach a peak of 7.542 billion tons in 2028 and reduce to 7.097 billion tons in 2035.In addition,if the proportion of mining,petroleum,chemical industry,steel and other heavy industries in the industrial structure can be reduced to 34% by 2035,the proportion of thermal power generation in the power structure can be reduced to 50% by 2035,and the average annual reduction rate of energy intensity in high carbon emission industries such as petroleum,steel and chemical industry can maintain 50% of the average reduction rate in the past decade from 2019 to 2035,Chinese industry can reach the peak of CO2 emission before2030,and the national economy can still maintain a medium and high-speed development trend.The sensitivity analysis results show that slowing down the economic growth appropriately,optimizing the industrial structure,accelerating the research and development of energy-saving technology and optimizing the power supply structure can effectively reduce CO2 emissions from industry and advance the occurrence time of the emission peak.Finally,based on the results of the research,we propose a pathway for China’s industrial CO2 reduction,and make recommendations for China’s industrial carbon peak and emission reduction at the government,industry and enterprise levels,respectively,to help China achieve its "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goal.