Research On Accident Regularity And Accident Risk Of Road Dangerous Goods Transportation

With the development of society and economy,the demand for the transportation of dangerous goods is constantly increasing,and road accidents involving dangerous goods occur from time to time.Studying the laws of road dangerous goods transportation accidents and analyzing the risks of transportation accidents are of great significance for ensuring the safety of dangerous goods transportation.Firstly,on the basis of the summary of the research status at home and abroad,the paper collected detailed information on 343 dangerous goods transportation accidents.Through statistical analysis of the distribution characteristics of the accident data,the basic laws of dangerous goods transportation accidents were obtained.With reference to the causal statistics and key elements of the accident sample data,the independent variable set of the accident severity analysis model is determined,and logistic regression analysis and elasticity analysis are used to study the significant factors that affect the severity of dangerous goods transportation accidents.Secondly,from the perspective of the driver of dangerous goods,the factors that have a significant impact on risky driving behavior are obtained.First,driver sample data is obtained and the correlation analysis is performed.Then the variables are selected and the model is assumed.The causal structure model and the measurement model of dangerous goods driver risky driving behavior are established,and the relationship between the dependent variable and the dependent variable,the independent variable and the dependent variable is analyzed and studied.Finally,significant factors affecting the risky driving behavior of road dangerous goods drivers are obtained from individual attributes,driving attributes,road attributes,and driving selection attributes.Thirdly,in order to study the significant influence factors and the risk of dangerous goods transportation accidents,the research results of dangerous goods transportation accident laws were used to select the parameters and the corresponding correlation analysis to obtain the factors that have significant correlations with the dangerous goods transportation accidents.Taking this as an independent variable,the casualty accident of dangerous goods transportation as the dependent variable,and based on the Bayesian network,a risk analysis model of dangerous goods transportation accident is established.Through its structure learning and parameter learning,it analyzes and determines the single or combined factors that affect the casualties of dangerous goods transportation,as well as the level of risk between each independent variable and the dependent variable.Finally,based on the research results,in order to be able to proactively prevent the occurrence of dangerous goods transportation accidents and reduce the risk driving behaviorof dangerous goods drivers.This article mainly proposes preventive or intervention measures from the driver's perspective,the perspective of safe transportation,and the perspective of avoiding risks,which provide a reference basis for the management of relevant departments.