Research On Urban Low Carbon Development Based On Urban Carbon Emission Accounting

Faced with the continuous advancement of the urbanization process,the labor force continues to migrate to areas with a high degree of urbanization,resulting in the continuous increase of urban energy consumption,which brings about environmental pollution and increased carbon emissions.These problems will become the factors restricting the sustainable development of the city.This paper applies the data of three typical urbanizational departments in Guangzhou from 2010-2018 to calculate the urban carbon emissions of Guangzhou by using carbon emission factors,and studies the situation and trends of carbon emissions in Guangzh ou.Through the U-Kaya Identity and the STIRPAT model,the influencing factors of urban carbon emissions were preliminarily screened,and 9 indicators of 4 types of factors were determined.Carbon emission factors were analyzed and key influencing factors were selected through gray correlation analysis,then the urban carbon emissions and trends of Guangzhou in 2020 and 2030 were predicted and analyzed by scenario analysis.According to the analysis of accounting and forecasting results,a feasible construc tion path was proposed for the low-carbon development of Guangzhou.The results show that:(1)In the baseline scenario with the natural development of existing policies,Guangzhou’s urban carbon emissions have shown a trend of sustained and steady growth but then a sharp increase.The total carbon emissions of the three departments accounted for by 2030 are expected to reach 14.22 million tons.(2)In the low-carbon scenario and optimization scenario with energy structure optimization and energy efficiency improvement,Guangzhou’s urban carbon emissions have shown a trend of sharp decline and then a steady increase.The total carbon emissions of the three departments accounted for in the optimization scenario by 2030 are expected to reach 63.593 million tons,with a reduction of 78.609 million tons from the baseline scenario.It can be seen that,to achieve low-carbon development in Guangzhou,measures such as optimization of energy structure and improvement of energy use efficiency can be taken to effectively reduce the total amount of carbon emissions.Finally,according to the analysis,the low-carbon city construction path of “source-process-consumer” is proposed,which also provides a construction idea for urban low-carbon development and enriches the research of urban low-carbon development.