Research On Environmental Pollution Carrying Capacity Of Motor Vehicle Exhaust Gas In Anshan City

The number of motor vehicles shows fast growth with the economic development and the improvement of residents' living standards in recent years.There is some serious atmospheric pollution in Anshan city as a heavy industrial city,and the influence of motor vehicle exhaust emissions on atmospheric environmental quality is becoming more and more prominent.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to analyze the contribution of motor vehicles exhaust emission to atmospheric environmental quality and the development limit of motor vehicles ownership in Anshan city.In this paper,the study on the environmental carrying capacity of motor vehicles exhaust pollution in Anshan city will provide a theoretical basis for relevant government departments to make decisions and protect the environmental quality.Based on self-built BP neural network model,this paper forecasted the motor vehicles ownership in the urban area of Anshan city in 2018 to 2022,and the pollutant emission factors(CO,NOx and THC)of the five motor vehicles were simulated by using the county data manager(CDM)of MOVES2014 b model made in the United States.On this basis,This paper estimated the emission of tail gas and the sharing rate of NOx,and then put forward the development space of the vehicle and the pollution capacity limit of the environmental.BP neural network model adopted seven inputs and one output,took total output value,total output value per person,local budget income,total population,population density,traffic road area per person and actual traffic road area as input parameters,took motor vehicles ownership as the output parameter.The training frequency set to50,000 times,the Mean-Square Error was 0.87.Reached a conclusion that the motor vehicles ownership in Anshan city in 2018 to 2022 were 321850,389650,450320,492280 and 609680,the annual average growth rate was 14.8%.Three types of pollutants(CO,NOx and THC)in exhaust gas of motor vehicles as the research object were taken.Through the localized parameters such as the year,the temperature,the humidity,the vehicle-age ratio,the average driving distance,the average driving speed and the vehicle owenrship were input by CDM of MOVES2014 b,the pollutant emission factors were calculated for 5 types of motor vehicles(light passenger cars,medium-sized passenger cars,heavy passenger cars,light trucks and heavy trucks).NOx was taken as pollutant index,the environmental carrying capacity of motor vehicles exhaust gas was analyzed in Anshan city.The results showed that the annual average growth rate of NOx sharing rate is 13.3% in 2018 to 2022.When the NOx emission level was set as the average sharing rate of the capital cities in the three northeastern provinces,the limitation of the motor vehicles ownership was 1.17 million,and this value would be reached in 2033,it means that the motor vehicles in Anshan city still has some development space in a short time.