Risk Assessment For Hazard Factors Of Pork And Edible Vegetable Oil Sold In China

China is the largest consumer of pork and edible vegetable oil in the world.In recent years,the safety incidents of pork and edible vegetable oil have occurred frequently,which bring many adverse effects on people's health and social stability.Risk assessment is an internationally recognized method to effectively assess food safety risk and plays an important role in guiding food safety supervision.In this paper,risk assessment models for various hazard factors in pork and edible vegetable oil were constructed by means of data mining,probability exposure assessment,comprehensive assessment and other risk assessment methods,and a risk assessment system for pork and edible vegetable oil safety was developed based on these models,which aimed to provide theoretical support for the safety supervision of pork and edible vegetable oil and reduce the possibility of occurrence of safety risks of pork and edible vegetable oil.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:1.Risk assessment for chemical hazards and pathogenic microorganisms in commercial pork?1?Risk assessment for chemical hazards in commercial pork:Based on the differences of veterinary drug residue standards in different countries,the risk assessment model of veterinary drug residues in imported pork was established.The results showed that the potential risks of veterinary drug residues in pork of America,Brazil,Russia,Australia and Thailand were low.The Geographic Information System?GIS? method was used to study the distribution and clustering of veterinary drug residue events in Chinese pork from 2015 to 2019.The results showed that the safety events of veterinary drug residues in pork were aggregated in time and space,and the hot spot gathering areas were mostly distributed in Southwest China.The health risks of lead,arsenic,cadmium and mercury in domestic pork were assessed by establishing a dietary exposure assessment model.The results showed that the carcinogenic risk of arsenic in commercial pork for the 2 to 4–year-old group exceeded the acceptable level(1×10^-4).The weak links that lead to the occurrence of chemical hazard events in the pork supply chain was explored by fault tree analysis.The results showed that the key to prevent the occurrence of chemical hazards of pork were strengthen the supervision of government departments and further improve the food safety standard system in China.?2?Risk assessment for pathogenic microorganisms in commercial pork:The risk of introducing African swine fever virus?ASFV?and swine vesicular disease virus?SVDV?by imported pork was assessed by constructing a quantitative risk assessment model.The results showed that the risks of introducing ASFV and SVDV into China by imported pork from Canada,USA,Brazil,Germany and Spain were low.The risk assessment model of Escherichia coli in domestic pork was established by using the modular process risk model,and it was concluded that the main risk factors for E.coli in domestic pork were the pollution level of E.coli in pork at the time of sale,the storage time and temperature after purchase.The risk assessment model of Salmonella in pork was established by analyzing the change of Salmonella concentration in pork supply chain.The results show that about 51 per ten thousand people would suffer from salmonellosis due to eating pork.2.Risk assessment for chemical hazards in edible vegetable oil?1?Risk assessment for benzopyrene,aflatoxin B₁and heavy metals in edible vegetable oil:By analyzing the pollution of benzopyrene in peanut oil,soybean oil and rapeseed oil,the carcinogenic risks of benzopyrene in three edible vegetable oils were evaluated.The results indicated that the carcinogenic risks of benzopyrene in three edible vegetable oils were acceptable.The health risk of aflatoxin B₁in peanut oil was assessed by using the Margin of Exposure?MOE?method and mathematical model method.The results indicated that aflatoxin B₁in peanut oil had a high health risk.Based on the pollution levels of lead,arsenic,cadmium and chromium in edible vegetable oil,a dietary exposure assessment model of heavy metals in edible vegetable oil was established.The results showed that the carcinogenic risk of chromium in edible vegetable oil was beyond the acceptable level.?2?Comprehensive risk assessment for chemical hazards in edible vegetable oil:A risk judgment matrix model of chemical hazards in edible vegetable oil was established by assessing the harmfulness and possibility of chemical hazards affecting the safety of edible vegetable oil.The results showed that the safety status of edible vegetable oil in Shandong and Heilongjiang Province were generally good,but both provinces need to strengthen the risk management of benzopyrene,aflatoxin B₁and tert-Butylhydroquinone in edible vegetable oil.Furthermore,a risk grade assessment model of chemical hazards in edible vegetable oil was constructed by Gray correlation method combined with interpretive structural model method?GRA-ISM?.The results showed that the main chemical risk factors affecting the safety of edible vegetable oil were benzopyrene,arsenic,acid value and dibutylhydrotoluene.Based on entropy weight analytic hierarchy process integrated BP neural network algorithm method?AHP-BP?,a prediction model for chemical hazards in edible vegetable oil was established.The decision coefficients R²of 10-fold cross validation and independent test of the prediction model were 0.994 and 0.992 respectively,indicating that the model fitting effect was good.3.Construction of the pork and edible vegetable oil safety risk assessment systemBased on the established risk assessment models of pork and edible vegetable oil in this paper,we developed a risk assessment system for pork and edible vegetable oil safety?http://www.biotechshu.com:8080/porkandoil?by using the MVC layered development pattern,which could provide assistance for food safety practitioners and consumers in risk management of the safety of pork and edible vegetable oil.