Natural Gas Peak Shaving Strategy Base On The System Dynamics Model

With the rapid development of China's natural gas market,the contradiction between demand and supply of natural gas has become increasingly fierce,the degree of foreign dependence of natural gas is increasing,especially in the north of China's winter coal to gas.In the way of peak regulation,gas storage is the most important means,therefore,how to strengthen our peak regulation capacity,how to promote the construction of gas storage has become a problem.In this paper,the differences between the operation and management mechanism of gas storage in Europe and America and China are compared.It can be found that gas storage in European and American countries is often operated and managed as a separate link,and has an independent pricing method for gas storage.Based on the pricing mechanism of European and American countries,this paper uses system dynamics model to compare the two pricing methods of service cost method and seasonal fluctuation method by setting a series of assumptions,so as to explore their influence on the operating cost,revenue and scale of gas storage.The results show that when the gas storage has an independent pricing mechanism,both the service cost method and the seasonal fluctuation method have obvious promoting effect on the construction of gas storage.Among the two pricing methods,the seasonal fluctuation method is more flexible and plays a more significant role in promoting the construction of gas storage than the service cost method.On this basis,this paper suggests that an independent pricing mechanism for gas storage should be established as soon as possible to allow the entry of a third party and strengthen the guidance and supervision of government policies.