Research And Implementation Of Risk Assessment Model For Drilling Operation Based On Bayesian Network

In the oil industry, drilling operation is a project of large investment, and high risk,which is characterized by multiple types,multi-process,continuous operation, many links.large scale, complex technology. Drilling operation determines the characteristics of drilling accident easily, and cause serious harm. Drilling in petroleum exploration and development is a very important link and means. In recent years,due to the growing scale of petroleum exploration and development, the country’s demand for oil is increased, and the safety of drilling operation requirements gradually increase. In order to guarantee the safety of drilling operation, carries on the risk evaluation is imperative.There are large number of illegal and hidden dangers in drilling operation. This article mainly from the scene of the drilling operation, from the people’s unsafe behavior and unsafe condition of things of two aspects to analyze the influencing factors.These illegal, hazard seriously affects the safety of drilling operation. In order to guarantee the safety of drilling operation, carry on the risk evaluation is imperative. Therefore, this paper has carried on the research of bayesian network risk assessment model, mainly includes the following aspects:(1) Understanding the research status of risk evaluation of domestic and abroad, and compares the existing risk assessment methods.(2) Identification of drilling operation risk and determine the risk evaluation criteria. The risk of drilling operations including the influence factors of people’s unsafe acts and material insecurity.And according to the drilling safety related research identify the risk evaluation criteria.(3) Using the bayesian network analysis method to analyze drilling risk hidden danger; through drilling risk evaluation model’s structure learning constructed risk evaluation bayesian network; In the part of the drilling operation risk evaluation model to predict the probability, using Matlab to calculate the risk probability of drilling site within a certain period of time, according to the risk assessment criteria for this time of the drilling to classified the risk level.(4) Integrated use the structure learning and probability prediction of bayesian network, to design the drilling risk assessment model of bayesian network. Through the existing safety assessment system’s relevant data, to verified the bayesian network risk assessment model.This article adopts C/S structure and.NET development environment, takes Visual Studio2010as developemnt platform in windows environment, and utilizes C#development language and SqlServer database, for the purpose of designing and achieving drilling risk assessment module.