Land Use Pattern Characteristics?Dynamic Changes And Simulation In The Coal Mining Area Of Northern Shanxi Province

As the main consumption energy in China,coal resources occupy a special position in the process of ensuring national economic security and promoting rapid economic development.Shanxi province is the main coal supply base,which economic development level is highly dependent on the output and consumption of coal resources.Through more than half a century of resource-dependent development,the region has been suffering huge coal mining disturbances.Therefore,the land use pattern has changed significantly.Simultaneously,ecological and environmental problems have become prominent.The economy of the study area was hit hard and its development was slow by the energy revolution.As different coal mining areas in the province have obvious evolution differences under the disturbance of different modes and different degrees,it's taking land use change as the entry point to study coal mining areas that is of great significance for regional land management and sustainable development.The coal mining area of northern Shanxi Province has 3 distinctive coal mining sites with abundant coal resources.Datong coal mining area has a mining history of about 1500 years and the most developed economic level.Hebaopian coal mining area is dominated by underground mining,and the ways of land damage are corresponding to goaf collapse,ground cracks,etc.Pingshuo coal mining area contains 3 extra large open-pit mines,so the surface disturbance is the most intuitive and intense.Therefore,this paper selected the coal mining area of northern Shanxi province as the study area.Land use data of the study area in 2005,2010,and 2015,as well as the driving factors including elevation,slope,aspect,temperature,precipitation,population,production capacity,and distance to highways and water were selected to analyze research status of the land use changes in the study period and explore its underlying driving mechanism.To this end,Logistic-CA-Markov model,ANN-CA-Markov model(FLUS)and RF-CA-Markov model(improved FLUS)were constructed to simulate andverify the land use pattern in 2015.The best simulated model was selected to predict the land use pattern of the study area in 2020 and 2025.Finally,with the goal of future ecological and economic sustainable development,the current appropriate development suggestions were proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Datong coal mining area,the oldest mining area in northern Shanxi province,has many coal seams,good coal quality and convenient mining,which coal resources have been deeply excavated and utilized.With the extensive mining and trading of coal resources,the economic level of this region has been accumulated for a long time,making it the most economically developed coal mining area in this study area.This region was dominated by forestland,grassland,and cropland.Most land types were transferred out of about 12%.The distance to rivers had the greatest impact on forestland,grassland,and cropland.The two most important factors affecting the distribution of cropland were temperature and the distance to residential area respectively.The leading factors of water area and construction land were precipitation and the distance to service facility.(2)Hebaopian coal mining area is dominated by underground mining,which has the most typical “Yuan,Liang,Mao” landforms.Due to mainly loose loessal soil,soil erosion is extremely severe in this study area.The main types of land in the mining area were cropland and grassland,but the area was decreasing year by year.Between 2010 and 2015,grassland and forestland mainly transferred to construction land and other land,and there were also mutual transition between them.Grassland and cropland were affected by all factors except production capacity,and the distance to rivers had a great impact on water area and other land.In addition,the water area was also affected by the elevation.The most important factor affecting the spatial layout of construction land was the distance to the residential area.(3)The Pingshuo mining area contains 3 large open-pit mines and 3modern underground mines.The open-pit mining was the main approach inthe early stage,and the open-underground combined mining was implemented in the later stage.As a semi-natural and semi-manual large-scale open-pit mining base in China,the evolution of land use is more complex and diverse.In this study area,grassland,cropland and construction land were the main land types.Due to the direct disturbance of open-pit mining to the surface,the construction land area increased sharply.In terms of affecting the spatial distribution of land,temperature and precipitation had a great influence on the distribution of forestland,grassland and construction land.(4)We used three models to simulate the land use patterns in the coal mining area of northern Shanxi province.The Kappa coefficient was used to verify the accuracy of the simulation results.The verification results showed that: the simulation accuracy of Datong,Hebaopian and Pingshuo coal mining areas were 0.8950,0.8750 and 0.8397 based on the Logistic-CA-Markov model,0.9163,0.9192 and 0.9163 based on the ANN-CA-Markov model(FLUS),0.9286,0.9269 and 0.9284 based on the RF-CA-Markov model(the improved FLUS).In summary,based on the RF-CA-Markov model(the improved FLUS),the simulation results of the study area are optimal.The random forest algorithm not only makes up for the shortage of logistic regression model in dealing with nonlinear geographical problems,but also avoids the disadvantage of ANN model in "black box" training.(5)The improved FLUS model based on the random forest algorithm was used to predict the future land use pattern in the coal mining area of northern Shanxi province.The results showed that: from 2015 to 2025,the overall land use pattern will be characterized by continuous decrease of forestland,grassland and cropland,rapid increase of construction land and other land,and the water area floating on the original level in the study area.Due to the differences of their conditions,the future land use changes in Datong,Hebaopian and Pingshuo coal mining areas are also slightly different.