Comprehensive Effect Measurement Analysis Of G20 Atmospheric Control Plan

As a compound resource,the environment has negative externalities,especially air pollution,which not only restricts the sustainable development of society and economy,but also is a major risk affecting the health of residents.It is difficult to achieve the goal of solving air pollution problem by the automatic adjustment of the market alone,must be solved by the government through environmental regulation.Therefore,it is greatly significance to effectively evaluate the air pollution control regulation policy.Only a reasonable and efficient environmental regulation policy can guarantee a win-win situation for the environment and residents’health.In view of this,this paper takes the Regulations on the prevention and control of air pollution in Zhejiang Province which is promulgated by Zhejiang Province during the G20 summit in 2016,as an example,and comprehensively evaluates the governance effects of environmental regulation policies.On the one hand,identify the direct effects of environmental regulation policies on Hangzhou air quality based on sharp regression discontinuity combined with nuclear density curve,which including short-term effects and long-term effects.On the other hand,based on the direct effects of policies,the adverse effect of air pollution deterioration on Residents’health is analyzed from the perspective of season and age after the air quality breakpoint value is determined through multiple regression discontinuity.On this basis,using the health production function to monetize the health effects of changes in air quality resulting from policies,which provides a scientific basis for the improvement of existing environmental regulation policies.The research on the direct effects of environmental regulation policies on air quality show that:（1）The direct effect of the policy on Hangzhou air quality is remarkable,which effectively reduces the concentration of three air pollutants,namely PM₁₀,SO₂ and O₃,and the air quality changes in a positive direction,but the governance structure is irrational and the investment is biased,the control effect on the control of CO and NO₂ pollutants is not prominent;（2）There is no significant difference between the short-term effect and the long-term effect,policy has strong continuity and excellent results,which has produced outstanding regulatory effect,and has not formed the phenomenon of"soft constraint of environmental regulation"over time;（3）It is found that there are seasonal differences in the regulation and control effect of the policy through interval estimation of nuclear density curves,which is excellent in autumn and winter,poor in spring and summer.The seasonal characteristics of previous air pollution"high in winter and low in summer"were weakened.The research on the indirect effects of environmental regulation policies on residents’health indicate that:the path of regulating air quality through environmental regulation policy can indirectly affect the health loss of patients.（1）The air quality breakpoint value appears atAQI=10 0,regulating the air quality with low pollution will reduce the health loss of patients,which has a significant positive effect.However,regulating the air quality with high pollution can hardly affect the health loss of patients,and the positive effect disappears.（2）From a multi-dimensional perspective found that there were differences in the health effects of patients of different ages and seasons at theAQI=10 0discontinuity.At the node where the air quality produces processing effects,the upward jump of the air quality level leads to an increase in the hospitalization cost and hospitalization days analyzed from a full-sample perspective,and the short-term effect and the long-term effect are both significant at the 10%level.Analysis from different ages shows that the upward jump of air quality level has a significant negative effect on hospitalization and hospitalization days for patients under60 years of age,but there is no negative effect on patients over 60 years old.From the perspective of different seasons,it is found that the upward jump of air quality has the greatest impact on the health loss of winter patients,which has a great impact on the health loss of patients in spring and autumn,and has the least impact on the health loss of summer patients.This phenomenon is indirectly improved by the environmental regulation policy.（3）Under the mechanism of environmental transmission,the effective treatment of air pollution through the Prevention and Control Regulations has a indirectly positive effect on residents’health and reduces the economic loss of air pollution to the residents of Zhejiang Province.Through the nuclear density curve and interval estimation,it is found that the change of air quality brought by the"prevention and control regulations"has increased the probability of all patients’hospitalization expenses in the low-cost range by 7.58%,among which the probability of patients under60 years old being in the low-cost range has increased by 13.66%,and the probability of winter patients’hospitalization expenses in the low-cost range has increased by 16.78%.In addition,the number of hospitalizations,hospitalization days and hospitalization expenses caused by air pollution in Zhejiang Province decreased significantly after the implementation of the policy.Compared with 2015,the number of hospitalizations caused by air pollution in Hangzhou decreased by 95,800 in 2017,the number of days dropped by 996,300 days,and the hospitalization expenses were saved by 1.049 billion yuan,in this sense,indirect effect of was remarkable,achieved a win-win situation for the environment and the health of residents.The academic contribution of this paper is embodied in the following three points:Firstly,it enriches the solution to the problem of environmental regulation policy effect measurement,and innovatively proposes a method to evaluate whether environmental regulation policy has continuity,and provides a theoretical reference for the study of air pollution on residents’health and economic losses.Secondly,based on the environmental transmission mechanism,from a multi-dimensional perspective,focusing on regression discontinuity design,combined with the nuclear density curve and interval probability estimation,the direct and indirect effects of environmental regulation policies are evaluated comprehensively,and the relationships among environmental regulation policies,air quality and residents’health in specific policy-affected areas are explored in a deeper level.Thirdly,the selection of topics focuses on the key and difficult issues of local governance in China,which can urges policy makers to review the established policies with Multi-angle and multi-dimensional,make up for the deficiencies of previous policies,and make government decision-making more rational,scientific,efficient,and provide a favorable guarantee for achieving the performance goal of optimal environmental regulation performance.