Research On Crisis Transformation Degree Model Of Waste NIMBY

Waste crisis management is a complex system in the social and economic environment,and its evolution is complex.The negative external effects of waste incineration projects,such as direct pollution,potential danger and subjective emotional displeasure,are easy to cause the waste NIMBY crisis.The report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the need to improve the public security system and environmental governance system.The 13 th Five-Year Plan emphasized on enhancing the basic ability of risk prevention and control and putting risk into normal management.It is of great practical significance to realize the waste NIMBY crisis transformation.The dissertation is divided into four parts.The first part includes Chapter 1 and Chapter 2.Firstly,the research background,purpose,theory and practical significance of this study are elaborated.And the basic research status in the field of waste NIMBY crisis transformation at home and abroad is introduced and reviewed.The existing research results on the application of crisis transformation idea in the field of waste NIMBY crsis management are few and lack of systematicness.On the other hand,there is a lack of specific methods and models for quantitative evaluation of crisis transformation.On this basis,the research contents and methods of this thesis are put forward.Secondly,it introduces the theoretical basis of the waste NIMBY crisis transformation,including the related theory of crisis transformation and the definition of the relevant concepts of the waste NIMBY crisis transformation,which lays a theoretical foundation for the study of this thesis.The second part is the third chapter.Firstly,the “Reputation-Profit” spatial scenario evolution model of waste NIMBY crisis is constructed.On this basis,the key factors related to the waste NIMBY crisis transformation are widely collected by using Co-word Analysis and literature induction,and the relevant indicators of crisis transformation are refined to form the “Reputation-Profit” index system of waste NIMBY crisis transformation.The “Reputation-Profit” index system of waste NIMBY crisis transformation forms a set of general index base,which provides a standard and theoretical guidance for selecting indexes to measure the transformation effect of specific NIMBY events.The third part is Chapter 4.It introduces PSR scenario-Bayesian network probabilistic analysis model of the waste NIMBY crisis transformation degree.Firstly,this chapter introduces the basic analysis methods of PSR model and Bayesian Network.Secondly,based on the PSR model,the PSR scenario expression of waste NIMBY crisis is carried out.Then PSR scenario-Bayesian network is constructed to analyze the probability of NIMBY crisis scenario network.Then,by determining the network node variables,D-S evidence theory to determine the node relationship and the probability distribution of the network node variables,the probability analysis is carried out,and the state probability of the PSR scene-Bayesian network sub-node is finally obtained.The fourth part is Chapter 5.Firstly,this part proposes a mathematical model of crisis transformation degree based on the “Reputation-Profit” index system,probability theory,input-output theory and complex system coordination degree model,and provides a quantitative evaluation method for the effect of waste NIMBY crisis transformation.Then,taking the waste NIMBY crisis incident in Zhejiang Yuhang as an example,combined with its specific evolution process,and based on the “Reputation-Profit” index system,the PSR scenario-Bayesian network diagram is constructed,and scenario deduction and probability analysis are carried out.Through DS evidence theory,Delphi method and Matlab tool calculation,the relevant variable values in the NIMBY crisis transformation degree model are obtained.By using the crisis transformation degree model,the thesis calculates the actual crisis transformation degree and the optimal path crisis transformation degree in Yuhang District,and compares and evaluates the transformation effect and optimization space of NIMBY crisis.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions of crisis transformation are put forward.The main innovations of this thesis are as follows:(1)The concept of waste NIMBY crisis transformation degree is proposed,which enriches and supplements the theoretical system of crisis transformation thought in the field of waste NIMBY management;(2)The “Reputation-Profit” index system for the waste NIMBY crisis transformation is constructed,and a general index base is formed to provide a set of standard and theoretical guidance for selecting indexes to measure the transformation effect of specific NIMBY events;(3)Based on the “Reputation-Profit” idea and the PSR scenario-Bayesian network,the waste NIMBY crisis transformation degree model provides a quantitative evaluation method for the measurement of the effect of the waste NIMBY crisis transformation.