Coupling Coordination Measurement And Simulation Of Provincial Energy-Economic-Environment System

With the rapid development of Anhui's economy,energy consumption has also increased.The coal-based energy structure in Anhui Province has determined that a large amount of pollutants will be emitted in the process of energy production and consumption.In addition,The imbalance between economic development and energy production and consumption leads to overcapacity,which further exacerbates the contradiction between energy,economy and environment.The calculation and simulation of the coordinated development level of the energy-economy-environment(3E)system in Anhui Province,and the in-depth analysis of the relationship between the three have important theoretical and practical significance for the formulation of scientific development decision-making to promote regional sustainable development.Firstly,based on the literature research,the thesis analyzes the research status and existing problems of the coordinated development of 3E systems,and determines the research ideas and research methods.Secondly,it sorts out the development status of 3E system in Anhui Province,constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of 3E system and determines the weight of indicators.The comprehensive evaluation index method is used to measure and analyze the comprehensive development level of each subsystem.Based on the binary and ternary system coupling coordination degree model,the multi-dimensional measurement and analysis of the 3E system coupling coordination degree in Anhui Province is realized.Using the system dynamics(SD)model,the 3E system simulation model was established,four different development scenarios were set up and the scenario analysis method was used to simulate the policy,and the optimal solution for sustainable development of the 3E system in Anhui Province was obtained.Finally,on the basis of simulation,predict the future development trend of representative index variables of each subsystem.Results show that:1)From 2004 to 2017,the comprehensive development of the subsystems of the 3E system in Anhui Province showed an upward trend.Among them,the economic subsystem has been steadily rising,and the development process of energy and environmental subsystems is volatile.Among them,before 2012,the energy subsystem and the economic subsystem showed mutual promotion and mutual development,while after 2012,the development of the energy subsystem and the economic subsystem began to deviate from each other.The comprehensive development index of the energy subsystem and the environmental subsystem has always been a reverse development trend.2)The coordination degree of binary and ternary systems in Anhui Province is basically maintained at the same level and continuously optimized to achieve a transition from near-disorder to good coordination.At the aggregate level,the coupling degree of coupling between the energy-economic system coupling and the economic-environment system presents a confrontational development status.3)Industrial pollution discharge and treatment volume,coal consumption,tertiary industry output value,and tertiary industry energy consumption are sensitive to GDP growth rate and energy consumption e-lasticity coefficient.4)Among the four scenarios of benchmark,slow,sustainable and high-speed,the sustainable development model is the best,which is consistent with Anhui's "13th Five-Year Plan" economic,social and energy development planning goals.The simulation prediction results show that from 2018 to 2025,the economic aggregate of Anhui Province will continue to rise,with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%,and the per capita GDP will increase significantly with an average annual growth rate of 9.8%.The total energy consumption will continue to increase,but increase.The rate is gradually slowing down,with an average annual growth rate of about 2.7%,and coal consumption accounting for about 70%.The CO2 emissions will continue to increase at an average annual growth rate of 2.8%.The discharges of industrial wastewater,industrial SO2 and industrial smoke will continue to decrease at an average annual rate of 9.03%,11.57%and 10.28%,respectively.The amount of industrial solid waste generated will be 1.73%annual growth rate is slowly increasing.Figure[76]Table[19]Reference[80]...