Analysis Of The Economic And Social Effects Of Coal De-capacity In Shanxi

Shanxi is a large province of coal resources in China.With its abundant coal resources,it has formed a typical resource-based economy with coal as its mainstay.Coal plays an important role in its industrial structure and development.However,overreliance on coal resources has caused a series of problems such as insufficient economic development potential,single industrial structure,high economic fluctuation intensity,and deterioration of the ecological environment.In order to change the situation of Shanxi 's “one coal dominance”,“prosperity due to coal,and difficulties due to coal”,the Shanxi Provincial Government formulated and launched the “Shanxi Action Plan for Building a National Energy Revolution Leader” in December 2017.In May 2019,the Central Comprehensive and Deepening Reform Conference adopted the "Opinions on Pilot Projects for Comprehensive Reform of the Energy Revolution in Shanxi".Due to the resource endowment characteristics of China's "rich coal,lean oil,and low gas",the core of promoting the energy revolution and realizing the optimization and upgrading of the energy structure lies in rationally controlling the scale of the coal industry.Based on the experience of coal de-capacity over the past few years,the reduction of excess capacity has brought about a positive effect while also causing a corresponding negative impact.However,there is no research result to quantify the economic and social effects of Shanxi coal de-capacity.As this article will reveal,the impact of different degrees of de-capacity on economic and social differences is large.Therefore,Quantitative analysis of the impact of reducing coal production capacity has important practical significance and urgency.Based on the input-output table of the 42 departments in Shanxi in 2012,this paper constructs an input-output model.Based on the industry correlation analysis of the coal industry,through different multi-scenario analysis,it compares the efforts of different capacity reduction policies to various industries in Shanxi Impact of sector output,employment,carbon emissions.In addition,by constructing an input-output table for 30 sectors in 9 regions,the industrial connections between Shanxi,Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Henan,Shandong,Shaanxi,and Inner Mongolia were analyzed,and the reduction of coal production capacity in Shanxi to Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei Wait for the impact of output in seven provinces.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)the influence of Shanxi coal industry on all sectors of heavy industry is generally high.Coal de capacity is not only helpful to eliminate coal excess capacity,but also to reverse the trend of continuous heavy industrial structure in Shanxi.(2)In the process of coal de production in Shanxi Province,it will not only cause great direct employment loss in the coal sector,but also bring indirect employment loss to the non coal industry through the impact of intermediate investment.The total number of unemployed under different scenarios of coal de capacity is more than twice that of coal industry.(3)Shanxi's coal capacity removal helps to reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions,but when the capacity removal is weak,it is difficult to achieve a significant reduction in energy consumption and carbon emissions.(4)Based on the comparative analysis of the three scenarios of coal capacity reduction,the paper finds that scenario one(capacity reduction policy)is suitable for the goal of slowly adjusting the coal production structure with the focus on ensuring economic stability.Scenario 3(reduction production policy)is suitable to achieve the goal of coal production structure adjustment at the expense of economic output,employment and environment.Scenario II(simulation Policy)can relatively well take into account the optimization and upgrading of coal production structure and the stable development of macro-economy.(5)By measuring the spillover effect of coal de capacity,it is found that:(1)the spillover effect of Shanxi on the surrounding provinces is quite different,among which the spillover effect on Hebei and Henan is the highest,while the spillover effect on Tianjin and Shaanxi is relatively low;(2)the spillover effect of Shanxi on the surrounding provinces is mainly concentrated in the technology intensive general-purpose,special equipment manufacturing and labor-intensive textile industry;(3)The scale effect is introduced to measure the impact of Shanxi coal production capacity reduction on regional output under scenario II(reduction production policy).The results show that Hebei,Henan and Inner Mongolia are the three provinces with the largest scale of decline in total output,with a total output reduction of 4.120 billion yuan,2.336 billion yuan and 1.589 billion yuan respectively.In addition,the decline of the total output of the surrounding provinces caused by the coal capacity reduction in Shanxi is mainly concentrated in the secondary industry,and the impact on each province is mainly concentrated in the dominant industries of each province.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following two aspects: one is to use the input-output model to analyze the impact of coal capacity reduction from the department level.Compared with most of the existing researches that analyze the impact of capacity removal from a macro perspective,a clearer understanding of the impact of capacity removal on the output and employment of all sectors of the national economy can be obtained from a sector perspective,which is helpful for the government to find and support the sectors that are greatly affected by capacity removal policies,in addition to the coal sector,so as to reduce the economic fluctuation caused by capacity removal Through the construction of three scenarios of different de capacity intensity to quantify the impact of different scenarios of coal de capacity,it can provide some decision-making reference for the government to formulate the policy of de capacity.