The Impact Of Urbanization On Haze Pollution In The Yangtze River Economic Belt And Its Trend Forecast

Since the reform and opening up,China's urbanization construction has been advancing steadily.Great achievements have been made in urbanization,which has also brought serious environmental pollution.As the first demonstration area of China's new round of reform and opening-up transformation,the development of the Yangtze River economic belt has become a major national strategy.According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics,in 2018,the Yangtze River Economic Belt gathered 42.90% of China's population and created 44.10% of the country's GDP.The Yangtze River economic belt has become a new engine of China's economic growth.However,with the traditional "three high" development mode,the environmental pollution problem in the Yangtze River economic belt is increasingly prominent,and the frequent occurrence of haze pollution is one of its main manifestations.Under the new situation,it is of great practical significance to discuss the optimal path to promote the urbanization construction of the Yangtze River economic belt from the perspective of haze pollution prevention and control,so as to prevent haze pollution and promote the high-quality development of the Yangtze River economic belt.Based on the population effect,industrial effect and land effect,this paper analyzes the evolution trend and spatial distribution of urbanization and haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt from the dynamic and static perspectives.Secondly,the spatial correlation of haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt is verified based on the global and local level.On this basis,based on the STIRPAT model and Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis,the spatial econometric model is constructed to analyze the heterogeneity of population,industry and land urbanization in the Yangtze River economic belt.Finally,based on the GM(1,1)model of grey metabolism,the future trend of the impact of urbanization on haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt is studied.The results show that: first,the urbanization and haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt are increasing,the regional differences are obvious,the urbanization level in the lower reaches is higher,and the haze pollution is the most serious.Second,the smog pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt shows a significant spatial autocorrelation,and there is a "sharing weal and woe" relationship between regions.Third,the impact of urbanization with different dimensions on the haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt is heterogeneous.Population and land urbanization have a significant positive effect on the haze pollution.Industrial urbanization has a significant negative effect on the haze pollution,and the spatial spillover effect of haze pollution is significant.Fourth,population,land urbanization and haze pollution show a significant inverted "U" curve relationship,and are all on the left side of the curve inflection point.Fifth,urbanization and haze pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will show an increasing trend in the next five years.Population and land urbanization will cross the inflection point and enter the right end of the inverted "U" curve.Finally,based on the current situation of the economic development of the Yangtze River economic belt,this paper puts forward the optimal path to promote the urbanization construction of the Yangtze River economic belt from the perspective of haze pollution prevention and control,in order to provide useful reference for promoting the high-quality economic development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt to a certain extent.