Study On Driving Factor And Reduction Capability Of Carbon Emissions In Yangtze River Economic Belt

Controlling greenhouse gas emissions is an important task for the global response to climate change.Effective emission reduction mechanisms and targeted emission reduction policies play an important role in achieving energy conservation and emission reduction targets.To explore the current situation of carbon emission drivers and carbon emission reduction capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB),the following main work is carried out.First of all,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial differences of carbon emissions in the the YREB from 2005 to 2017,empirically examines the driving factor shadow of carbon emissions based on the STIRPAT model,and applies scenario analysis to predict the future energy consumption.Then,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of carbon emission reduction capability,which includes economic development,science and technology development,carbon sink,energy consumption and carbon emission,social development,and measures the carbon emission reduction capability in 2005,2010,2017 of the YREB based on the entropy weight TOPSIS method,and calculates the obstacle degree of carbon emission reduction by the obstacle factor diagnosis model,and classifies the state of carbon emission reduction in different provinces and municipalities by the four-quadrant matrix scatter diagram.Finally,carbon emission reduction strategies are proposed from the economic belt and regional perspectives.Comprehensive research process,draw the following conclusions:(1)Population size,per capita GDP,industrial structure and energy intensity have a positive driving effect on carbon emissions,while urbanization rate has a negative driving effect on carbon emissions,per capita GDP and energy intensity have the greatest impact on carbon emissions increase,and urbanization rate has the greatest inhibitory effect on carbon emissions;(2)There is a large gap in the forecast of future energy consumption in the YREB under the high-carbon scenario,the low-carbon scenario and the strengthening of the low-carbon scenario,which indicates that the future emission reduction space is large,and the downstream region may still be the main source of carbon emissions in the YREB;(3)From the overall score of carbon emission reduction capacity,downstream provinces and municipalities have far greater emission reduction capabilities than other provinces and cities,and the gap is decreasing;from the carbon emission reduction capacity of each subsystem,the downstream has strong economic,technological,and social development capabilities,the upstream and midstream have strong carbon sink capabilities,and the upstream and downstream have strong energy consumption and carbon emissions capabilities;(4)From the subsystem barrier factors,the main factors of the downstream are carbon sinks,energy consumption and carbon emission capacity,and the main factors of other provinces and municipalities are the economic and social development capabilities;from the perspective of barrier factors at the index level,the most significant factors come from carbon sinks and social development capabilities;(5)The planning of the emission reduction path should take into account both emission reduction capacity and barrier factors,the path of emission reduction in downstream should be from improvement to maturity,and other provinces and municipalities should be from backward to improvement to maturity.The innovation of this paper is expressed in three aspects: one is to select explanatory variables from five dimensions to expand the traditional STIRPAT model,and the other is to measure the carbon emission reduction capacity and emission reduction obstacles,and provide new ideas for the carbon emission reduction capacity evaluation research.The third is the fourquadrant matrix scatter diagram was introduced into the carbon emission reduction path planning,and the current status of emission reduction was analyzed and classified.