A Study On The Impact Of Economic Growth On CO2 Emissions In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

In the context of tight global carbon emission constraints and the commitment of the Chinese government to CO2 emission reductions,the Yangtze River Economic Belt is facing the dual challenge of energy saving and emission reduction and transforming the mode of economic growth.This paper takes the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object to study the effects of economic growth-both growth levels and growth mode-on CO2 emissions.Based on the panel data from 2000 to 2015,shortterm studies are conducted using the Tapio decoupling model and LYQ analysis to describe the status quo.Through the panel data model and CO2 emission peak time prediction,this paper explored the impact of economic growth on CO2 emissions in 9 provinces and 2 municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the medium and long-term.This paper finds that the level of economic growth will affect CO2 emissions through energy consumption and cement production.The economic growth mode will affect energy consumption through “energy-saving effect” and “emission-reduction effect”,and then affect CO2 emissions.The Tapio decoupling model shows that the CO2 emission and actual GDP recoupled after decoupling and then decoupled again.The eastern and western regions mainly rely on energy-saving effects to achieve CO2 emission reduction.In the central region,they in proper sequence rely on emission reduction-energy saving-emission reduction.Panel data model overcoming the endogenous shows that in terms of total volume and per capita,relationship between CO2 emission and actual per capita GDP are inverted U-shaped.The EKC curve exists.Among the economic growth mode factors,industrial structure,energy structure,technical level,and FDI have significant impact on CO2 emissions.The regression results by region show that the core emission reduction factors are energy consumption structure in the eastern,technology level in the central,and energy consumption structure with technology level in the western of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Foreign trade and Foreign economic development has promoted CO2 emission reduction in the eastern and central parts through structural and technical effects,but it has made the west a “pollution paradise”.Forecast of the peak time of total CO2 emissions shows that CO2 emissions will achieve peak by 2030 in all provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.All regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt should seize the core factors of CO2 emission reduction to realize the positive interaction between the mode of economic growth and CO2 emission reduction.