The Study Of Facilities Deployment Plan Based On The Short-term Forecasts Of Subway Station Inflow Passenger

Subway station,as the first pass to enter the subway for passengers,undertakes the duty of how to rapidly distribute and transit the passengers.And it has a great important feature to protect the safety of passengers.During operational phase,the goal is to optimize the coordination of subway station services,while achieving the service level to meet the customers' requirement.Based on the short prediction of passenger arrival law distribution and passenger number on station passenger inflow section,combining subway station simulation,this paper explored a new approach to dynamic optimization services station deployment.With the reference of existing research results,this paper proposed a method to predict short-term passengers arrive law based on the simplified PH distribution.And by selecting the suitable parameter prediction model,predicted the simplified PH distribution parameters of passenger arrival law.Thus predicted the distribution of passenger arrival law.In addition,compared the fitting results by predicted simplified PH distribution with practical simplified PH distribution verified that the method of predicting short-term passengers arrival law based on the simplified PH distribution was accurate and feasibal.To achieve the goal of exploring new ways to optimize the coordination of subway station services dynamically,based on the short analytical prediction of regular distribution of passenger arrival and passenger number on station passenger inflow section,this paper designed the simulation of subway station.And it built the physical model and logical model of subway station which can analog the in and out passenger flow lines.By inputting simulation parameters,it simulated the passenger movement in subway station,and exported the aggregation state and service level of service facilities.This paper explored a new approach to dynamically optimize the services deployment based on the short prediction of regular distribution of passenger arrival and passenger number on station passenger inflow section,with the standard of services deployment plan's the pros and cons is the level of service.And eventually to Suzhou City Mudu station Metro Line 1,for example,dynamically optimized the services deployment plan.