Study On The Probabilistic Production Simulation Of Power System With Pumped Storage And Wind-PV Generation

The probabilistic production simulation of power system is an algorithm which considers uncertainties such as random generator outage,arranges generator according to certain principles,and calculates the generated energy,economy and reliability indicators of the power system.Traditional probabilistic production simulation is mainly for nuclear power,thermal power,hydropower and other conventional power stations.With the increasing scale of pumped storage and wind-pv generation,there is a need for further research on the probabilistic production simulation of power system with pumped storage and wind-PV generation.Firstly,on the basis of current research,the improved cumulant method of avariable capacity distribution is proposed.Compared with other methods,This algorithm has the advantages of speed and accuracy in calculation.Secondly,the avariable capacity model of pumped storage power station is established and the expected value of pumping power,power generation and remaining load curve is caculated.Considering economy and reliability factors,the operation optimization model is established.The objective function is to minimize the sum of fuel costs,environmental costs and power outage costs.By the means of probabilistic production simulation,the optimum running model of pumped storage power station is calculated.Then,for the randomness and volatility characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic output,the timing avariable capacity model of wind and PV generation is established.The probabilistic production simulation method of wind and PV generation is proposed.Finally,case studies verify the reasonableness and effectiveness of the proposed method in this paper,reveal the laws governing the operation of pumped storage power station and calculate the economic benefits brought by pumped storage and wind-PV generation.