Study On The Interference Reliability Model Of Natural Gas Pipeline Network Based On The Analysis Of Water Resources

With rapid development of China's national economy,China's natural gas consumption is growing,the natural gas pipe network system also increasingly large and complex.Compared with European and American,China's natural gas pipeline undertake the maximum transportation task and has the largest pipeline pressure,but it has the minimum redundancy.Compared with European and American countries,China's per kilometer pipeline,undertake the task of natural gas transport pipeline pressure and maximum,minimum redundancy is,geological landform along the pipeline,the natural climate,complex social environment,population density,serious secondary disasters,the above factors,So that China's natural gas pipeline system in the user smoothly,there is a series of gas safety issues.Natural gas pipeline,which works as the connection between resources and market,to guarantee the smooth and safe operation is essential.Due to various reasons,The existing management system of natural gas pipeline system which has been unable to providing sufficient security to Supply gas.Therefore,this paper main research content in order to establish natural gas pipe network interference reliability model of supply and demand,to get the gas supply reliability,ensure smooth and efficient running of pipe network,guarantee the balance between supply and demand.Establish natural gas pipe network interference reliability model of supply and demand must know two basic data which is the gas pipe network supply for natural gas and user demand for natural gas.Through hydraulic calculation can get supply for natural gas,Basis of establishing hydraulic calculation model is the network topology to simplify the analysis,Thus,according to the matrix of knowledge can be established based on the correlation matrix flat of pipe network and established a network of valve model.Through scanning Matrix method to get incidence matrix of valve network,make flat network into the valve network.Once the pipeline failure,According to the shutdown area can be make a close valve solutions,Thereby reconstruction failure pipe network,establishing failure to pology of the pipe network.According to the topology models of the pipe network,combined with the basic equation for gas flow in the pipe,to establish the natural gas pipeline network transient simulation model.Using the implicit central difference method to solve the model.USing TGNET software to simulate hydraulic simulation model,and get the gas pipe network supply for natural gas,Establishment of a pipeline supply of probability distribution models.Established the user demand natural gas model by exponential smoothing model.Analyzing the conditions and scope of different orders of exponential smoothing method,and how to determine the initial value,combining experience judgment method and trial method to determine the coefficient.At last,Get user demand for natural gas,Establishment of a natural gas demand probability distribution modelsAccording to the gas pipe network supply for natural gas and the user demand for natural gas can establish the interference reliability model of supply and demand,then deduces supply reliability expression.And pointed out that when the probability distribution function as a special distribution,using analytical method to solve the supply reliability expression;when the probability distribution function is more complex and difficult to solve integration,Using Monte Carlo Method to solve the supply reliability expression.According to the supply reliability,established supply network reliability of the pipe network model change over time.