| TPP,a shot cut of Trans-pacific Partnership Agreement which is originated from the Trans-pacific strategic economic agreement,was a multilateral free trade agreement,sponsored by Brunei,Singapore,Peru and New Zealand.In 2009,America joined and leaded the progress of TPP negotiation depending on its super political and economic influence.The TPP was called the 21 th century high standard trade agreement,due to the countries of TPP distributed on Asian,Oceania,North America and South America and the contents of TPP coverage the trade of commodity and service,finance,investment,the protecting of intellectual property and the labor and environment agreement that was little included in other trade agreement.What’s more,the import and export tax among the TPP countries will be declined to zero and no country would be exception.The TPP will have a wide and deep influence on the structure of the Asian-Pacific world economic,even the world economic structure,if the TPP agreement was reached.Shipping market is a derivative market of the world trade and economic and the trade and economic effects of TPP would be reflected by the shipping market,especially the trans-pacific container line market which just on the Asian-pacific area.This paper firstly and intensively analysis the influence that the TPP put on the trans-pacific container line market due to the effect of trade creating and trade diverting.Through the introduction of the content and character of TPP,the TPP treaty of zero import and export tax adopting to all the TPP countris were found to have the effects of trade diversion and trade creation,that will influent the Asian-Pacific trade,thus having a great influence on the trans-pacific container line market demand.They are the basic theories of the paper that the theory of trade creating and trade diverting and the theory of derivative demand of the line market.The Globle Trade Analysis Project(GTAP),simply introduction in this paper,is used to forcast the trade volume of the trade creating and trade diverting.Acordding to the theory of derivative demand of the line market,the model of the relationship between the the volume of trade ande the cargo voume is established using the way of OLS,thus giving the approach of how the TPP effect working on the trans-pacific container line market.Two assumption that China would have joined the TPP or would not,as the premise of analysis,were set in order to analyze how great effect that the TPP would put on the trans-pacific container line market.Through the analysis,we can get the safe conlution that the TPP would have a positive effect on the demand of the trans-pacific container line market,thus alleviating the problem of supply exceeds demand that long time have been in the line market.However,contray to the situation of China have joined the TPP,the positive effect would be much smaller.In oher words,The TPP would have a great influence on the trans-pacific container line market if China joins into the TPP. |
