Study On The Safety Risk Indentification And Analysis Of Big Railway Passengers Station

In recent years,with the acceleration of the construction process of the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed railway network in China,the proportion of people traveling through the railway is increasing,and the large railway passenger station,which is responsible for collecting and transferring passengers,connecting various modes of transportation,and promoting the economic development of the city,its operation safety getting more and more concern.The upgrading of technology and equipment in railway passenger station has made conventional safety management methods unable to meet the requirements of the current large railway passenger station operation and management.It is extremely urgent to explore and formulate risk management methods for the safety operations of large railway passenger station under the new situation.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the key issues of identifying and analyzing the safety risks of large railway passenger station system.First of all,this paper focuses on the source of risk and studies the hazard identification of large railway passenger stations from two dimensions of comprehensiveness and emphasis.A hazard identification model based on the regional division of large railway passenger stations is proposed,combined with HAZOP technology,a summary table of hazards is obtained.After that,the hazard identification model of key events based on fault trees was introduced to identify the hazard of large railway passenger station key events.Secondly,in order to screen out hazard with higher risks for key management and control,this paper carry out further quantitative safety risk analysis research on hazard.Combining the advantages of fuzzy uncertainty theory and Bayesian network,a Bayesian network transformation method based on the fault tree model and a priori probability calculation method of root node based on fuzzy uncertainty theory are explored,and a risk analysis model of hazard sources for large railway passenger stations based on Bayesian network is constructed.Taking the fire incident as an example,a quantitative safety risk analysis model based on Bayesian network for fire hazards was established,the Bayesian model was simulated with GeNIe software to realize forward and backward reasoning.Finally,the probability of occurrence of a fire incident was deduced,and the key hazards for inducing fire were identified,which provides technical support for the precise control of fire risk.Then,from the overall perspective and operational aspects of the large railway passenger station system,the paper puts forward the question of the operation risk analysis of the large railway passenger station system.The BP neural network evaluation method is introduced,and the risk evaluation index system of large railway passenger station is built on the basis of the existing hazard identification results,and the weights of each evaluation index are calculated by entropy weight method.On the basis of the index system and the weight value,input into the BP neural network for training and testing,the model parameters are determined and a BP neural network model suitable for risk evaluation of large railway passenger stations is designed.The model can not only evaluate the overall safety risk level of the operation of large railway passenger stations,but also evaluate the safety risk level of various evaluation indexes,combined with the quantitative analysis of the hazards at the micro-level,it can provides a scientific basis for finding the weak links of the railway passenger station system security.Finally,taking the Chengdu East Railway Station as an example,the BP neural network model and fuzzy evaluation method are used to evaluate the operation risk,and compare the results obtained by the two evaluation methods.It is proved that the BP neural network evaluation model has a better effect on the operation risk analysis of large railway passenger stations.In this paper,the research on qualitative identification and quantitative security risk analysis of hazards at the micro level and system operation risk analysis at the overall level will do favour to improve the pertinence and effectiveness of system safety risk management for large railway passenger stations system.