Safety Risk Assessment Of Waterway Regulation Construction Based On Fuzzy Integrated Bayesian Network

The waterway regulation project has the characteristics of large investment,long construction period,and many construction procedures.There are a lot of uncertain factors in the construction process.Once the construction safety accident occurs,it will cause personal safety damage and huge property losses to the operators.In this paper,a fuzzy comprehensive Bayesian network model is established to evaluate the safety risk of waterway regulation engineering construction.The probability level of safety risk is determined based on Bayesian network theory,and the severity of safety risk is evaluated by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,the overall construction safety risk assessment results are obtained by synthesizing the possibility and severity of safety risk.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:1.Taking the earthwork construction as an example,a comprehensive analysis of construction safety is carried out according to the topography,climate conditions,surrounding environment,engineering geology,and construction of the project.And a list of risk factors is obtained by combining expert opinions to establish a construction risk assessment index system to lay the foundation for the subsequent risk assessment.2.Because of the relationships among these risk factors,a BN model can be established.Risk probability can be calculated based on reliable data obtained from experts.In the form of the expert questionnaire survey,the possibility of risk occurrence is determined.In the Bayesian network,it is converted into the prior probability of root node.Determining the conditional probabilities of non-root nodes of Bayesian networks and the weights of each factor in fuzzy integrated evaluation by comparing the importance degree of factors in pairs through the analytic hierarchy process.The conditional probability of non-root nodes of the Bayesian network and the weight of each factor in the fuzzy integrated evaluation are determined by means of a two-by-two comparison of the importance of each factor by hierarchical analysis.According to the relevant industry standards,the construction safety assessment level criteria are formulated and risk acceptance guidelines are proposed.3.A case study relating to safety risk analysis in the construction of a section of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal waterway construction project was used to verify the feasibility of the approach as well as its application potential.The results show that the probability of construction safety risk of earthwork in M segment is 0.0209,the probability evaluation grade is 3,the loss evaluation grade is 3,and the comprehensive evaluation grade is III.It is not expected.The results are consistent with the engineering reality,which demonstrates that the fuzzy Bayesian network model has good applicability and not only has theoretical value but also has practical significance for the actual construction.