Long Term Load Forecasting Of City Gas Based On Competitiveness Evaluation

From the perspective of human development,energy is the material basis and the driving force of all human activities.Different energy sources indirectly determine the types of activities.After years of adjustment,the proportion of natural gas in the energy consumption in our country has risen to about 7%.In our country,the gas upstream,middle and downstream companies are facing new opportunities and challenges.The key to tackle the challenges is to complete the urban natural gas utilization planning and feasibility study.Load forecasting is a key and difficult task.The accuracy of the forecast results is related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood,the safety and efficiency of the supply system,and the benefit of the company.It is necessary to carry out a thorough study on it.Based on the investigation and summary of the gas load prediction at home and abroad,the classification of gas load prediction and the main methods,the following works are done:Firstly,according to the complexity of gas consumption,the paper analyze the current situation of energy consumption and gas consumption in foreign countries,China,and Beijing.This paper focuses on the direction and potential of natural gas utilization.It is pointed out that the future development direction is"gas generatepower and gas instead of coal".The key development areas are power generation,transportation,heating and distributed energy.Through the analysis of the development of natural gas in different regions,it provides the basis for the evaluation of subsequent competitiveness and the model selection of forecasting models.Secondly,according to the competitive and alternative of different energy technology,the competitiveness evaluation system is established in 7 areas,such as residents,power generation,heating,and so on.10 experts were invited to use the multi-index group decision-making fuzzy competitiveness evaluation method to score the evaluation indicators applied in various fields from the perspective of environment,energy,society,technology and application.Quantitative calculation of the comprehensive advantages of natural gas and other energy technologies in various fields,so as to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of different energy applications technology.The results show that the technology of natural gas has better competitiveness in many application fields,especially in the field of power generation,heating distributed energy and industry.Finally,the comprehensive advantage of natural gas application technology is used as the influence factor to predict.The long term load forecast of natural gas in B city is taken as an example.Using SPSS,9 factors affecting the natural gas load are selected.After that,many factors are converted into a factor,and this factor is defined as the integrated development value of natural gas technology().Selection of Logistic curve fitting model for long-term urban gas load forecasting of urban gas based on competitiveness evaluation.The MAPE of the prediction results is 5.440%,RMSEis6.138×10~8m~3,which belongs to the high precision prediction.In fact,it is proved that the method of long-term urban gas load forecasting based on competitiveness evaluation is advisable.It can be used for reference and practical significance in the prediction of the development of urban gas.