The Design And Development Of Medium And Long Term Load Forecasting System Based On GIS

Medium and long term load forecasting in electric power system is the basis of power grid planning.The result of load forecasting provides the basic data for the renovation and expansion of the grid, the construction of new power plants. Load forecasting not only need forecast the total load, but also know the spatial distribution of load, which will facilitate the development of power supply planning, route planning, resource allocation and planning, etc.This paper studies the medium and long term load forecasting, including comprehensive second-best fitting model of load forecasting for forecasting total load and spatial load forecasting based on land usage.Integrated suboptimum fitting model is to solve the optimum credibility by considering different load forecasting ways are independent of each other approximately. This model obtains the optimal solution without iteration, so the speed of calculation is improved with high accuracy.Spatial load forecasting based on land usage is a way on the basis of classification statistics with which the total load of substation prorates to the load of all kinds of properties, and acquires the average load density. The spatial distribution of the load can be forecasted in this way where the data acquisition about cells is difficult. Practice shows that the method has good maneuverability and practicability.This paper designed and developed "the medium and long term load forecasting system based on GIS" combined with the construction of Dalian Power Supply Company’s development plan which realized the goal of "one open and two integrations". One open means the method library of gross load forecasting is extensible. Two integration means the load can be forecasted both on the time and spatial dimension and the integration process in which the data is accomplished from data acquisition, calculated to the variety show. Meanwhile, the system provides abundant data interfaces for the MIS, EMS and marketing system, etc. The grid and load information management system is also completed on the system. Part of results calculated are stored in the database which makes it possible that the result can be used repeatedly where the Calculation is over. The automatic data acquisition module of the system automatically gathers the data of load, electric current and other data as a service which greatly reduces the workload of staff to collect data.At present, the medium and long term load forecasting system based on GIS already used in the grid planning of Dalian power supply company, and the system was proved that it could greatly improve the efficiency of staff and the accuracy of load forecasting’s result.