Research On The Forecast Of New Port Throughput

In order to implement the national "One Belt,One Road" and Pan-Pearl River Delta regional cooperation strategy,Shenzhen Yantian Port Group invested in the construction of the Xiaomo International Port and its port Industrial Park in the ShenShan Special Zone.The goal is to build Xiaomo Port into an international logistics port,undertaking Shenzhen's industrial transformation and upgrading,and realizing the policy of "Port Promote the City" as well.When the port planning is carried out in Xiaomo Port,the construction of ports with too large or too small scale will cause waste of resources.Therefore,it is necessary to make a reasonable forecast of the port cargo throughput so that it can provide decision-making basis for port layout,business strategy,investment in basic facilities,etc.Xiaomo Port is a newly-built port and lacks historical throughput data,but most of existing literatures are based on the historical throughput of the port,and only integrate various types of prediction models for research,which means they don't match Xiaomo Port.This paper proposes an integrated forecasting method that includes integrating multidimensional information,multiple methods,and various models to estimate the throughput of Xiaomo Harbor.This enriches the ideas and methods for port throughput forecasting,provides a basis for companies to establish operations and investment plans,and can draw on the throughput forecasts of other new ports and new logistics parks.Firstly,the factors affecting the throughput were integrated and analyzed in the hinterland of Xiaomo Port,including the port construction plan of Xiaoxiao Port,the economic development of its hinterland,the cooperative relationship among surrounding ports and Xiaomei Port,and macroscopical external environment.According to the analysis,the cargo throughput of Xiaomo Port consists of the volume of cargo brought by its own hinterland and the amount of cargo that is attracted from other surrounding ports.Then,analogous to the other 20 coastal ports,the paper integrates qualitative analysis,correlation analysis,and grey correlation analysis to extract the influencing factors of static flow,and uses the principal component regression to fit the port throughput prediction model.Based on GM(1,1)model,the key influencing factors of the port's static throughput are predicted,and combined as the forecast model to output the static throughput of Xiaomo Harbor.In addition,this paper combines the actual relationship between ports to quantify the degree of convergence of the port through the entropy weight TOPSIS method,and then fuses the gravity model to calculate the attraction coefficient of the Xiaomo Port to different ports.Based on the historical throughput of each port,this paper uses the exponential smoothing model to predict their future throughput,combines with the division results result of ShenShan Special Zone traffic planning to the circle of Xiaomo Port hinterland.And also,a weighted summation is used to draw the dynamic logistics of the Xiaomo Port.It is predicted that the total throughput of the newly-built Xiaomo Port will reach 49.5 million tons in 2020.After exchanges with the experts of the Organizing Committee of the ShenShan Special Zone,the predicted value is more realistic and has a certain reliability.The paper provides scientific theoretical basis and decision support for the throughput prediction of new ports and port logistics planning.