Analysis And Thinking On The Forecast Of Freight Throughput Of Ningbo Zhoushan Port

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy,the port has occupied an increasingly important position in economic development,and it is also facing increasingly fierce competition.Port throughput is one of the factors that evaluate the level of port development.The scientific forecast of port cargo throughput is an important basis for planning port logistics,building logistics parks,formulating port development strategies,and scientifically and rationally setting up port.The accuracy of port throughput forecasting will directly affect the scientific,rational and advanced nature of port development planning.This paper aims to accurately predict the cargo throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port and provide the necessary theoretical basis for the future development planning of Ningbo Zhoushan Port.By analyzing the development of port throughput,screening out reasonable throughput forecasting methods to forecast and improving the accuracy and scientificity of port cargo throughput forecasting,and providing strong support for the future development of Ningbo Zhoushan Port.Firstly,based on relevant research theories at home and abroad,this paper expounds the relevant theories of port development,and introduces the related methods of port cargo throughput prediction from the two aspects of qualitative and quantitative,including the nature and characteristics of forecasting methods,applicable conditions,advantages and disadvantages,and analysis of the factors affecting its development.Secondly,aiming at the development trend of cargo throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port,combined with the use conditions and advantages and disadvantages of forecasting methods,the most suitable forecasting methods are selected: quadratic exponential smoothing method and grey forecasting method,and combined forecasting models are given by giving different weights.Forecasting the cargo throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port in the next five years.By analyzing the future development trend,comparing the existing development level of the port,and analyzing the internal and external factors affecting its development.It provides a theoretical basis for further exploring the development of Ningbo Zhoushan Port.Finally,on the basis of forecasting the development trend of the port's future cargo throughput and influencing factors,putting forward the thinking and strategic layout of port development planning.