| The Yangtze River Economic Belt concentrates 40% of China's population and economy,and the transportation infrastructure plays a leading role in the economic and social development,but the existing transportation system has been difficult to meet the needs of future development.The Three Gorges of the Yangtze River is the key node of the Yangtze River water transportation.In 2017,the traffic volume of the dam over the dam exceeded the design capacity of 40%.The congestion of the dam became normal.The ship lock has been in a state of high load,and the traffic organization pressure of the stop maintenance is increasing.In order to ensure that the social development of the Changjiang economic belt is limited by the conditions of traffic infrastructure,it is necessary to make a scientific and accurate prediction of the volume of freight traffic over the dam,and then put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.First,through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,this paper verifies that there is multiple collinearity among the factors affecting the volume of freight traffic over the dam,and the influence factors will be influenced by the time change.Therefore,the innovative prediction process is divided into three stages in the long and medium term.The short-term prediction adopts the transport elasticity coefficient method and the regression analysis method and the water transport coefficient method considering the influence of GDP,and the unbiased grey Markov chain is introduced into the prediction of the freight volume of the over dam.The results of the four methods are kept in a certain range.It's more credible.After introducing scenario analysis into medium and long term prediction,we use elastic coefficient method to predict.Secondly,through the study of transportation transport volume,although the total volume of transportation has declined after 2014,the volume of freight transport is still growing.It also proves that the provinces and cities along the Yangtze River still have strong development power.The influence of insufficient supply has affected the development of the upper reaches of Yangtze River to some extent.After studying the traffic economic development trend of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the past 20 years and combining the geographic information system(Arc Gis)tools,it is found that the development of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is extremely uneven,the development of the three provinces in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai is the best,the development of Yunnan in Guizhou is the worst,but the development speed of Guizhou is the fastest,the remaining 6 provinces and cities are gradually narrowing,The speed of development is also small.In the coming period,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai provinces still have a large gap with other provinces and cities,and Guizhou will gradually step away from the last step.At last,the above method is used to calculate that 1.6 million tons,2.6 million tons and 3.5 million tons in 2020,2035 and 2050,and the main goods are predicted.In the course of the study,we found that the ratio of the Three Gorges Dam passing freight volume to the total volume of water transport and freight volume in Chongqing and Hubei remained at around 0.05.The current Three Gorges shiplock design capacity is only 1 billion tons,and there will be nearly 2.5 billion tons of supply gap in the next 30 years.In terms of the implementation of the solution,the short-term solution should be fully implemented as soon as possible;the medium-term solution should be implemented as soon as possible except for the construction of the general freight railway along the river.The forward plan should build a heavy haul railway along the river,and make a detailed analysis of the concrete lines of the heavy haul railway and the advantages of the construction after the construction.It is suggested that 2020 Start construction in the next year or so to meet future economic and social development needs. |
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