Study On The Relationship Between Comprehensive Transport Freight Volume And National Economy And Development

Integrated transport freight index as the most important part of transportation is an important reference for judging the changes of macroeconomic,is a barometer reflecting macroeconomic changes and plays an important role in the development of social economy.To study the relationship between the comprehensive transportation volume and the national economy,the purpose is to explore and discover the intrinsic relationship between the comprehensive transportation volume and the national economy and to identify the influencing factors of the relationship between the comprehensive transportation volume and economic development,to better serve the transportation economic operation analysis,and provide important support for macro decision-makingThis thesis is on the basis of theoretical research and empirical research at home and abroad,first study screened integrated transport volumes and national economic indicators,adopt the method of a certain theoretical research,build relationship mechanism framework and analyze the main influencing factors;Then using integrated freight volume and annual index of national economy,based on the study of foreign advanced experience of developed countries and developing countries for reference,Study and analyze the long-term relationship between China's comprehensive transportation volume and national economic development and its influencing factors;Reuse comprehensive cargo transportation volume and quarterly and monthly index of national economy,using the research methods to explore correlation between comprehensive transportation volume and short time series of national economic development and time correlation,causal relationship,the relationship between the cycle.Finally,based on the relationship mechanism framework,the reasons and influencing factors of long-term relationship and short-term relationship between comprehensive transportation cargo volume and national economic development are analyzed.Study conclusion shows that the integrated transport freight index and national economic indicators screening of the railway,highway,waterway freight volume index of the three kinds of modes of transportation and national economy index screening GDP,industrial added value,the social consumer goods,eight indexes such as total investment in fixed assets;On long-term relationship research,drawing on the experience of major foreign countries found that freight and economic relations in the developed countries have decoupled,and two developing countries was still in the stage of relatively close economic ties with the freight,and China ' s freight and economic relations have experienced a trend of “decoupling-coupling-decoupling” for a long time.;In the short-term relationship study,the quarterly elastic change between the comprehensive transport freight volume and the economy is decoupled and coupled alternately.Comprehensive transportation and freight volume have strong correlation with major economic indicators.The comprehensive transportation freight volume is in sync with the national economy as a whole,integrated transport volumes and most national economic indicators are granger factor,integrated transport freight volume and the fit of the national economy index overall performance is good;Analytical study found in both short-term and long-term relationship,decoupling of cargo transportation and economic development is the ultimate trend,research suggests that the economic structure to the third industry,economic development declines in material dependence,the global financial crisis and other factors will play the role of promoting decoupling;Short-term relationship study found:In recent years,China's economic development has entered a new normal,economic restructuring,industrial concentration and development and transformation have gradually accelerated,which has led to a trend change in the close relationship between freight and economy formed in the past high growth period,these new changes are precisely the objective reflection of speed shift,structural optimization,power conversion,and in line with macro-control and policy objectives.