Study On Cost Power Price Model And Investment Decision Of PV-ES Power Station Based On Full Life Cycle Theory

Solar energy is a kind of clean and pollution-free renewable energy with large reserves and wide distribution.With the restrictions of the polluted environment and the shortage of fossil energy supply,the utilization of photovoltaic power has become an important way for the power industry to implement sustainable development.Energy storage battery has the advantages of flexible installation,low environmental requirements and mature technology.In this light,it is imperative for the photovoltaic power station to be equipped with energy storage battery system which can improve the grid-connected characteristics of PV power generation,track scheduling plan effectively,enhance the reliability of output and improve the ability of the grid to accept the photovoltaic power generation.With the continuous improvement of technology and the requirements of the electricity market reform,it is foreseeable that the photovoltaic-energy storage(PV-ES)hybrid system will become the development direction and trend of the large capacity PV power plants.Due to the uncertainty of relevant policies and the expensive cost of energy storage system the actual operation benefit and investment feasibility condition of the PV-ES power station are difficult to be clear,and the risk of investment decision is increased.It is significant for the healthy development of photovoltaic power generation and the new energy consumptive capacity of gird to study the economic feasibility of the Photovoltaic generation combined energy storage system.Based on the existing research,this paper first analyzes the investment environment of PV-ES power station under the current level of technology and policy environment,and expounds its good investment prospects and coexisting investment risks.Then,in order to make an a correct investment decision,an evaluation system of investment decision is set up in light of the economic feasibility of the PV-ES power station which can make an accurate quantitative assessment of the risk of investment.In this paper,based on the whole life cycle theory,the dynamic cost function is established by considering the all cost of the power station;according to the actual data of other photovoltaic power station in the same illumination area,considering the constraints of battery charging power and SOC,run simulation to obtain the power of electricity,and then establish the profit function of PV-ES power generation system;based on the cost price model,the investment decision process is divided into two stages,and combined with the current electricity price policy,investment decision index and parity price analysis index are set up.Finally,through the example analysis,calculate the critical value of investment economic feasibility and the key time node to achieve parity in two stages,and verify the feasibility and practicability of the method system through example analysis.The cost price model and investment decision method established in this paper will help to analyze and evaluate the economic feasibility of the PV-ES power station.On the one hand,it provides scientific criteria for investment decision making for project investors,which is helpful to enhance the ability of risk aversion.The investors of the power station can refer to the critical conditions of the economic indicators to obtain the expected income,and change the investment strategy accordingly to avoid the investment risk.On the other hand,this paper provides some reference for policymakers,the relevant state departments can adjust the electricity price policy according to the research conclusions,and promote the healthy and orderly development of the PV-ES power station.