Application Research Of Life Cycle Cost Analysis In Power Transformer Investment Decision

With the rapid development of China's economy,in order to meet the growing demand for electricity and the development of smart grids,the state has continuously increased the amount of investment in the construction of power projects.Among them,the investment of power transformers is an important part of power companies' investment in power engineering construction.The advantages and disadvantages of power transformer investment decisions determine the investment cost,social benefits and competitiveness of power companies in market-oriented reforms.At present,in the process of power transformer investment,power companies often pay attention to the initial investment cost,ignoring the equipment efficiency and the late input cost.Therefore,how to comprehensively consider the economics and efficiency of power transformers from the perspective of full life cycle cost,and choose the optimal solution from multiple investment schemes is a research topic with practical application value.Firstly,it introduces the research on the life cycle cost at home and abroad,analyzes the working principle characteristics of the power transformer and the commonly used estimation methods for life cycle cost.And divides the life cycle cost of the power transformer into the initial investment cost,operation and maintenance cost,loss cost,environmental cost,failure cost and decommissioning disposal cost.Secondly,analyze and evaluate its economics from the perspective of the life cycle cost of power transformers.Aiming at the phenomenon of“pre-investment”in traditional power transformer investment decision-making,this paper introduces the method of life-cycle cost analysis.And considers that in practical applications,many data are difficult to obtain and the estimation process is affected by many uncertain factors.Applying the blind number theory to the life cycle cost calculation of power transformers,using blind numbers to express the uncertainty of cost estimation parameters.The blind number model of the life cycle cost of power transformers is established under the full consideration of the time value of funds.The blind number model includes the possible value interval and corresponding credibility of the life cycle cost of the power transformer.The Delphi method is used to solve the possible value interval,and the corresponding credibility is expressed by the comprehensive credibility.Combining the three power transformer investment schemes,the economics of the three schemes are compared by calculating their full life cycle costs.Finally,analyze and evaluate its comprehensive capabilities from the perspective of power transformer cost-efficiency.Because the primary task of the power transformer is to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid.Therefore,when investing in power transformers,it is necessary to consider not only the economics of the power transformer but also the efficiency of the equipment.By analyzing the efficiency of reliability,maintainability and technological advancement of power transformer,a comprehensive cost-effectiveness decision analysis of power transformer based on AHP fuzzy theory is proposed in this paper.The AHP fuzzy theory method is used to establish the cost-effectiveness index system of power transformer.Among them,the AHP method is used to calculate the cost-effectiveness factor weight and the fuzzy theory is used to quantify the fuzzy relationship between the factor set and the comment set.The advantages and disadvantages of the investment plan are evaluated by comparing the comprehensive evaluation values calculated by different investment plans.Through the comprehensive evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of the three power transformer investment schemes,the optimal solution is finally selected.This method provides an objective reference for power enterprise decision makers,reduces the uncertainty in the power transformer investment decision-making process,and can be used as a new method for power companies to purchase power transformers.