Investment Decision Of Power Project Based On Life Cycle Cost Research

In the 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic,the national policy has vigorously promoted the UHV smart grid to build "the Energy Internet" around the world.According to the country’s requirements for increasing power grid investment,China’s power engineering projects have achieved rapid development.However,traditional power engineering project investment decisions only pay attention to the pre-construction cost of the project,neglecting operation and maintenance costs.The overall system considerations for the pre-preparation cost,construction cost,operation and maintenance cost,end-of-life disposal cost of the power project are not established,which bring losses to investors.Therefore,the investment decision model of power engineering projects based on the life cycle cost is extremely urgent.In this paper,the system dynamics method was used to study the investment of decision-making problem based on the life cycle cost.Firstly,the paper analyzed the definition of power engineering projects,explained the definition of life cycle cost management theory and investment decision theory,and clarified the characteristics of system dynamics,modeling principles and modeling steps.Secondly,the paper explained the purpose and structure of the life cycle cost system,set the boundaries and assumptions of the life cycle cost system,and analyzed the four subsystems of the pre-preparation,construction,operation and disposal of the whole life cycle of the power engineering project.The system dynamics approach was used to build the cost model of the four-phase subsystem and the full life cycle cost model system.Thirdly,the paper analyzed the influencing factors of investment decisions in power engineering projects,considered the life cycle cost,and built an investment decision system model.Using the 500KV power transmission and transformation project in someplace as the data source,the paper simulated the case and analyzed the sensitivity of the main related factors of investment decision.Finally,the Tos method based on entropy weight method was used to analyze and empirically study the investment decision method of power engineering projects.In this paper,the concept of the whole life cycle was introduced into the process of engineering investment decision-making,and the life cycle cost model and investment benefit model of power project engineering were constructed.Then the cost and benefit indicators with the concept of full life cycle were substituted into the Topsis method.The investment decision-making plan is compared and selected.This paper established an investment decision model for power engineering projects based on full life cycle cost.The model can not only provide guidance for the cost input of each part of the construction project.but also predict and compare the engineering schemes,and also conduct post-project evaluation research on the rationality of the cost input of each stage of the existing construction project.The research is of great help to decision makers in power engineering projects.