Renewable Energy Electricity Generation Planning In Kenya Under Uncertainty

Energy is essential to the economic and social development and to improve the quality of life of the people and is also an important development indicator.Abundant energy resources exist in Kenya but still remains untapped.Renewable Energy in form of hydro,geothermal,wind,biomass and solar is a major energy resource spread out across the country.The energy from these resources can eliminate the most prominent problem that persists-'Shortage of Power'.The potential of these renewable energy sources is so high that it can solve the problem of shortage,as well as provide the power to everyone at affordable rates.To facilitate the utilization of these Renewables,energy planning is essential.Electricity is the fastest growing form of energy and the electrification is expected to increase significantly.This thesis,thus,seeks to analyze the energy demand and supply patterns,develop and analyze environmentally friendly least cost energy scenarios in Kenya's electricity generation sector.The equilibrium between energy security and environmental objectives shape the sustainability of the electricity supply system.The scenarios set are based on the economic investment projections which shapes the electricity demands.The energy demands are grouped according to electricity consumption rates.The slowed,moderate and accelerated scenario's energy demands need to be met with renewable energy resources.Carbon dioxide emission from the use of fossil fuels in thermal plants to generate electricity is progressively decreased.To meet the deficit and the growing electricity demands,renewable energy plants expansion is necessary.Priority is given to the most reliable renewable sources based on levelized electricity costs and energy capacity factors.The sensitivity analysis done using discount and escalation rate indicates that geothermal,imports,bagasse and solar are the most reliable sources ranked in that order with geothermal ranked highest.Power generation capacity expansion schemes obtained after analysis of optimal binary decision variables using the LINGO software are set for consideration.The findings shows that plants expansion need to be done in phases such that there will be minimal surplus electricity generation.In the long-term,more than 85%of the electricity demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.44%to 47%is generated by geothermal power plants,hydropower with 21%to 25%and wind power with 11%to 13%.Cogeneration contributes 3%.Solar PV contributes 1%to 2%to the annual energy needs.The remaining electricity demand is mainly covered by imports(7%to 9%)and coal(6%to 8%).On the pollutant control,accelerated scenario which prioritizes aggressive utilization of solar and wind power more than the other scenarios shows a low emission of carbon dioxide.