| It is difficult to carry out cost management of the overhead line project effectively,due to the long construction period of it,as well as its complex environment,so many sub-projects and cost indicators involving in it.As the initial stage of project,whether the design stage can analyze the economy of the project through scientific and reasonable design reviews,control key expenses from the source,decide the management direction of the whole project.Under the initial expenses management mode adopted in China’s current power grid project,the standard reference price is a fixed value,the compatibility with the cost under differentiated technology solution is insufficient,and the technical and economic indicators are of huge size,the budget estimate is difficult to review,so the management of design review needs innovation.Therefore,establishing the cost interval and the engineering quantity interval for the key expenses of overhead line project will provide a more scientific reference standard for the decision-making of the initial stage and the selection of the design plan,so as to realize the effective control of the total construction cost and the optimization of the design plan.By widely reading,searching and analyzing paper about data mining theory,interval theory and methods of cost forecasting,this paper constructes cost interval and construction quantity interval,then the key cost is found by establishing cost contribution index,at last,it gives the application of the interval in the review of the key cost estimate,guiding the design review and decision-making work,reducing the review workload,and improving the evaluation efficiency.On the basis of related theory research,this paper designs two stages to establish the interval,which are clustering and prediction.Six unit projects such as tower,overhead line,foundation,accessories,grounding and auxiliary are clustered based on the fuzzy C-means algorithm,which is a way of high-dimensional clustering,and the results are taken as the basis of interval prediction.The unit project cost and the partial project engineering volume interval of overhead line project are predicted by using the least squares support vector machine algorithm.According to the research results,the rationality and validity of interval setting are verified.At last,the application of cost interval and engineering quantity interval in the pre-project design review of key cost assessment is analyzed.By constructing the index of contribution and combining with the established unit project cost interval,the key cost that affects the total cost is determined,which provides the key point for reviewing and controlling in design review.Then,based on the engineering quantity interval under the critical expense and the corresponding real-time market price,the key cost interval is established.Finally,the necessity and feasibility of popularizing and applying overhead line project cost and engineering quantity interval in grid engineering design review is confirmed by case study,which makes the research results more instructive and practical. |
