Study On The Impact Of The Yalu River's Water Transportation Development On Dandong Port Throughput

The Yalu River's waterway transport has experienced the historical evolution of "navigation-non navigable-segmented navigation".Dandong is one of the sea ports in the Yalu River.The throughput of Dandong port and the regional economy of Dandong will be affected by the development of water transport in the Yalu River.Therefore,it is necessary to quantitatively analyze the impact of the Yalu River's water transport development on the regional economy and the throughput of Dandong port.Therefore,this paper first proposes a cointegration relationship model between nonstationary time series,which is used to analyze the relationship between water transport and regional economy in Dandong.The cointegration model can be established by testing the stability of the two time series,and the residual test is carried out for the cointegration equation established,and the results show that the model is stable.Secondly,based on the stable cointegration model,the vector autoregressive model(VAR)is established for the two time series,and the AR root diagram of the model is judged to verify the stability of the model.Secondly,the lag order of the VAR model is determined,and then the interaction between the two is determined through the Granger causality test.The response of the model to the water transport and the GDP is examined by the impulse effect function respectively,and the contribution degree of the water transport to the GDP is calculated by the variance decomposition.Finally,the three layer BP neural network model is setted up to take the input vector of the BP neural network as the input vector of the BP neural network,including the GDP,the freight transport volume,the first industry added value,the third industry added value and the total foreign trade import and export.The port throughput is the output vector,the model is trained and the throughput of the Dandong port in the next five years is predicted..The results show that there is a stable cointegration relationship between Dandong's cargo volume and GDP,which are Granger causality and interaction.Based on the existing cointegration relationship,further research and calculation show that the contribution of waterborne freight volume to GDP is about 1.5%.Finally,through the training of BP neural network model,the throughput and throughput of Donggang in the next five years are predicted to increase year by year.The research results have important theoretical and practical significance to determine the timing of the Yalu River's water transport development,the sustainable development of Dandong port and the improvement of the comprehensive transportation system in Dandong.