Forecasting Passenger Car Ownership And Sales In China Based On Artificial Bee Colony Programming For Symbolic Regression

Since the 21 st century,China has become the country with the largest vehicle production and sales all around the world.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,the vehicle ownership is rising each year while passenger cars account for the largest proportion in China.The problems brought by the increasing vehicles in China such as air pollution,insufficient road carrying capacity,and the slow development of the automotive industry caused by market saturation,have been highly valued and resolved by the state and governments.In order to provide data references for the government to take effective measures,it is significant to make researches on the future development trend of vehicles.That is,to make researches on the prediction of vehicle ownership and sales,especially on passenger cars.In this paper,we use it to predict the trend of passenger car ownership per hundred people in China.Data of six representative developed countries is collected to fit the prediction model.The relationship between passenger car ownership,scrappage,and sales can be expressed by the sales export formula.Then we can predict the passenger car sales based on passenger car historical data and passenger car ownership’s forecasting data.The experiment shows that the new model is better than the classical prediction model,which is called Gompertz model in the aspect of passenger car ownership per hundred people.In this way,we establish three new models to describe passenger car ownership’s development,the American model,the Japanese model,and the Australian model.Together with Gompertz model,we forecast passenger car ownership in China.Then we use the sales export formula to forecast passenger car sales in China.Results show that passenger car ownership per hundred people in China in the American model will reach a peak value of 45.245 in 2057 and then fall to 45.173 in 2060.The Australian model will reach 49.276 in 2060,but that is not its peak value.The Japanese model will increase very slowly,which is only 33.565 in 2060.While passenger car sales in China show different results in the three models.The American model and the Australian model will both reach its peak value,while the former in 2040 and the latter in 2055.The results of the Japanese model show obvious fluctuations.Therefore,the American model and the Australian model should increase the passenger car production before the peak,and then reduce it after the peak.The Japanese model should adjust the production of passenger cars for several times to achieve the balance between production and sales to avoid potential market crisis.Given that China’s passenger car market is still in infancy,it is recommended that production policies should be adjusted in time according to sales,aiming at easing the conflict between overcapacity and market demand.Furthermore avoiding potential market crisis,and achieving sustainable development of China’s auto industry.