A Study On Household Passenger Car Ownership

In recent years,the number of passenger cars in China has shown a sharp increase.Thishas brought about many negative problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution while promoting the development of the automobile industry,stimulating economic growth and facilitating residents' travel.Passenger cars are of high value and can often be shared among family members.They have typical characteristics of durable consumer goods,and the frequency of consumption is low and often accompanied by typical events in the family.Therefore,the ownership of passenger cars is studied on a household basis.It is of practical significance to evaluate the influencing factors of passenger car consumption and to evaluate the consumption demand under different management policy scenarios.To this end,this paper starts from the perspective of Life-oriented method,and conducts research on the ownership and purchase behavior of family passenger cars in a layer-by-layer manner.The main research work is as follows:First,the impact of the “family life cycle stage” on the static behavior of passenger cars is studied.Using the cross-sectional data of 25 provinces and cities in 2012 China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS),according to the existing family life cycle stage division method,the family life cycle is divided into 14 stages as explanatory variables to introduce household passenger car possession behavior.Binomial logistic regression model.The results show that the level of public transportation services in the family life cycle stage,total family income,and family residential address has a significant impact on the static possession status of household passenger cars.Secondly,the impact of the “family life cycle event” on the state change of passenger car insurance is studied.Using the CFPS 2010 and 2014 survey data,seven typical family life cycle events were extracted.By establishing an unordered multi-class logistic regression model,the effects of the above events on the dynamic occupancy of the family passenger car are discussed separately or simultaneously.The results of the study show that some family life cycle events have a good explanatory power for the state of the family passenger car: the marriage and the birth of the newborn and the occurrence of children's school events will indeed increase the state of the family passenger car from scratch.Probability.Widowed or family members leave home and there is a significant suppression of the state of the family passenger car from nothing.Finally,the impact of the macro-population policy that may affect the composition of the family on the willingness to consume passenger cars is studied.Based on the survey data of household passenger car consumption decision-making in Dalian,a discrete selection model of passenger car consumption decision-making behavior considering the willingness of family second child was established.The results show that after comparing the multiple Logit regression model and the interpretation ability of the nested Logit regression model,we finally select multiple Logit regression models as the optimal model.The model results show the number of passenger cars,the car purchase price budget of the passenger car,whether to prepare Factors such as the first child,whether to prepare for the second child,etc.have a good explanatory power for the model,confirming that the comprehensive open second-child policy,which is mainly concerned with this chapter,has a significant impact on the choice of household passenger car consumption decisions.