Research On Real-Time Risk Operation Of Reservoir Group Based On Newsboy Theory

In recent years,the Xijiang River Basin has developed with high-quality and high-speed economic and social economic and social development.The demand for water in the basin has gradually increased.In addition,global climate change has caused severe fluctuations in runoff sequences,uneven distribution of water resources in time and space,and substantial reduction in water volume during dry periods.Risk sources such as the uncertainty of water demand have gradually become prominent,and new requirements have been put forward for the scheduling and decision-making of river basin reservoirs.The paper aims at the problems of wide-ranging,large influence and long duration of risk sources in the Xijiang River Basin dispatching process,taking the five key reservoirs of LongTan,YanTan.BaiSe,HongHua,and ChangZhou as the research objects,comprehensively Taking into account the two risk sources of uncertain incoming water and uncertain water demand,the newsboy theory is introduced into the field of reservoir operation,and innovatively proposed the multi-objective risk operation of the backbone reservoirs in the Xijiang River Basin that takes into account the energy storage benefits of the reservoir group and the demand for salt water compensation in the downstream.Model using genetic algorithm(GA)to solve the model,set up a set of deterministic scheduling schemes,the set of single-source risk scheduling schemes with determined water demand,uncertain incoming water,determined incoming water,and uncertain water demand,and neither incoming nor demand The determined multi-source risk scheduling.plan set has obtained the risk scheduling resufts under multiple combinations of incoming water sequences and salt pressure demand.The research results have important theoretical significance for the water resources allocation in the river basin,and have practical significance and application value for the Pearl River Delta region in the dry season to effectively respond to the salt tide intrusion,and provide important support for the efficient use of water resources in the Xijiang River Basin.The main research results of the thesis are as follows:(1)Constructed the Copula function of the main and tributary streams where the backbone reservoirs of the Xijiang River Basin are located,and clarified that the water inflows from the main and tributary streams in the basin have high synchronization;using the Muskingen method,the flow from each backbone reservoir to the downstream Wuzhou section is calculated.Use the P-Ⅲ frequency analysis software to select the four typical weeks closest to 90%of the design value for real-time scheduling;Based on the daily runoff data of LongTan Reservoir from 2013 to 2017,the method of multiple regression is used to predict LongTan The future inflow of water from the reservoir.(2)The newsboy theory is introduced into the field of reservoir operation,and a real-time optimal operation model for reservoir group risks is established that takes into account the energy storage benefits of the reservoir group and the downstream demand for salt and salt supplementation.The model can effectively quantify the unreasonable storage and release of water during the operation of the reservoir.Risks,and clarify the impact of uncertain factors such as water inflow and demand in the basin on the decision-making of reservoirs.(3)Regarding the demand of 1900 m3/s in the Wuzhou section as the water demand plan,a deterministic real-time optimal operation model for the risk of the backbone reservoirs in the Xijiang River Basin was established and used by genetic algorithms,and four groups of typical weekly risk minimums were obtained.The proposed dispatching plan provides a reference for the research on the risk dispatch of reservoir groups under the influence of uncertain factors such as incoming and outgoing water.(4)Using LongTan Reservoir’s inflow runoff under different forecasting accuracy to characterize the uncertain factors of incoming water,the demand for pressured salty fill water under the condition of[1800,2400 m3/s]under different saline tides at the Wuzhou section of the dry season is taken as 100m3/s In order to discretize the interval,use different salt pressure and fresh water demand to characterize the uncertain factors of water demand,establish and solve the single-source and multi-source risk real-time optimization scheduling model based on the newsboy theory,and explore the different forecasting accuracy.The law of the influence of deterministic risk sources and water demand uncertain risk sources on the risks in the real-time operation of the backbone reservoirs in the Xijiang River Basin,that is,under the influence of uncertain factors in incoming water,the lower limit of the river basin risk during the operation period remains unchanged,and the upper limit is increased;Under the influence of water demand uncertainty factors,the average daily risk of the basin during the dispatch period increases;under the combined influence of the two,the threshold of the basin risk during the dispatch period becomes larger,and the upper and lower limits are increased to varying degrees.(5)With the increase of risk sources,the risks in the basin gradually increase.With the decrease in the accuracy of inflow forecasting,the influence of uncertain risk sources of incoming water on the dispatch results gradually decreases,and the influence of the two risk sources of incoming water and uncertain water demand on the dispatch results gradually increases.And with the increase of the flow of the Wuzhou section,the opportunity risk gradually decreases,and the over-reserve risk gradually increases.The total risk first decreases and then increases,and the increase rate gradually slows down.