Research On The Electricity Purchase And Sale Strategy For Electricity Retailers

With the continuous deepening of electric power commercializes reform of China,more and more electricity retailers have been set up.With the more intense market competition and the increasing market awareness of users,the effective purchase and sale strategy of electricity retailers will be more and more important.In addition,the operation of electricity retailers will face many risks.Only by making an accurate evaluation of the risk can electricity retailers get steady market strategies.In this context,the market strategy,especially the purchase and sale strategy,is studied in this paper.Firstly,in this paper,the four categories of electricity retailers,such as set up by the grid company,possessing the capability of generating electricity,funded by social capital and the intermediary agent,are discussed.At the same time,this paper discusses the business model of electricity retailers from four aspects: the electricity purchasing channel,the business model of electricity sale,the income of demand response project and the mode of additional value-added service.Based on the discussion of the types and business models of the electricity retailers,the general characteristics are summarized,which lays the foundation for subsequent establishment of various models that can be applied to most of the electricity retailers and a widely applicable operational risk assessment method for most of the electricity retailers.Secondly,aiming at the three uncertain factors,such as the degree of users' demand response,the accuracy of electricity price prediction and the accuracy of load forecasting,establish a mathematical model.Based on this,demand response profit model,electricity purchase and sale in balance market model and load forecasting model are established.Then on the basis of the three models,this paper establishes the upper model that considering the maximum profit of the electricity retailer and servicing the electricity retailer.At the same time,considering the customers' satisfaction degree,a lower level model is established to serve the users.The upper and lower level models constitute the bi-level model of the procurement and sell decision for electricity retailers.Through the simplification and single layer processing of the bi-level model,and using it to carry out the example simulation,we get the optimal procurement and sell strategies for electricity retailers and the optimal electricity consumption strategies for users.At the same time,the simulation results also show that in the framework of demand response project,according to the condition about operation,electricity retailers adjust the operation parameters and guide the demand response behavior of users actively and timely,besides,users will also adjust their electricity using behavior and demand response according to different circumstances.There is a strong interaction and mutual benefit between the electricity retailers and the users.Finally,based on the analysis of many risks faced by the electricity retailers,and based on matter-element theory,the operational risk evaluation model of electricity retailers is established,then the risk degree of electricity retailers is evaluated by using this model,in addition,the risk feedback mechanism of electricity retailers is also explored,which shows that electricity retailers need to consider the risk factors in their operation and incorporate risk assessment into their procurement and sell decisions,so as to get a robust market strategy.The research of this paper aims at the need of electric power commercializes reformation,and provides theoretical support and method guidance for electricity retailers to make purchasing and selling decisions in the increasingly open electricity market environment.