Study On Construction Schedule Risk Management Of Track Project Of Guangzhou Metro Line X

The track specialized engineering is in the center of the whole subway construction,and has the important function of "on the road(Civil Engineering)to start(equipment installation)".The subway project construction includes the whole line section,the construction area is linear distribution,the construction process has very strong repeatability and continuity,and can be arranged according to the construction flow.However,the construction of track engineering is often disturbed by other professional construction,the continuity of construction is destroyed,causing forgetting effect,which causes the time limit to be controlled,and it is easy to cause the progress risk.This paper first expounds the risk and the mechanism of the progress risk of the construction of track engineering;secondly,it identifies the influence factors that affect the continuity and repeatability of the track engineering construction,which may lead to the progress lag,including the external factors and the internal factors,and the external factors are divided into two parts.The first part is the function management.And other factors,including the bidding model,the supply model of a supply material,the management ability of the owner,the weather,the government,the intervention along the construction,and the second parts are the interaction between the various professional project interfaces.The internal factors are mainly the influence of the subway construction project department(construction unit)itself,such as low production efficiency,low efficiency of construction tools,problems in construction organization mode,and so on.The construction project schedule risk management index system and weight calculation are established by using analytic hierarchy process.After the establishment of the schedule risk index system,combined with the expert fuzzy estimation method,the risk probability and risk loss model are established through the calculation of membership degree and so on.The risk assessment matrix is obtained by the R=P * C rule method,and then the risk grade is divided.At last,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to establish the evaluation model of the progress risk,and the risk of the track construction progress is comprehensively analyzed and evaluated,and the level of the overall risk level and the risk grade of a single risk factor are determined.At the same time,the corresponding risk response measures are put forward according to the conclusion.The progress risk of this project belongs to the first level risk,and the greatest impact on the progress of the project is the intersection with the civil engineering specialty interface and construction,which belongs to the special risk;the package mode,the engineering change,the quality and management ability of the project manager,the natural disaster and bad weather,the overlap with the subsequent professional engineering period and the construction organization of the project department It belongs to the first level risk.On the basis of the progress risk assessment results,a targeted coping strategy is proposed for the first level risk factors.