Technology Roadmap Decision-making Method To Comply With Corporate Average Fuel Consumption Standards

The dramatic growth of China’s automotive market leads to serious energy security and environmental problems.Corporate Average Fuel Consumption(CAFC)is a critical instrument issued by China’s government which aims to improve fuel economy for passenger cars.From the perspective of policy makers,a comprehensive model should be established to assess the inner attributes and mechanisms as well as other cooperative policies.So that the pros and cons of these attributes and mechanisms around the world can be compared and analyzed.The synergistic schemes and effects of other cooperative policies can be quantified.In this way,the target of CAFC standards could be realized.Moreover,valuable policy implications for updating and improving future phases of the standards could be learned.From the perspective of automakers,the problem of technological roadmap decision-making for meeting fuel economy standards should be further analyzed,which will help automakers design a more efficient and robust decisionmaking method.In this study,with the aim of satisfying CAFC standards,a mathematical model is constructed from automakers’ perspective to describe the combinational optimization problem of selecting fuel-efficient technologies.This problem is proven NP-hard so that heurist algorithms should be implemented.By employing a technology compatibility matrix and a specialized hierarchy coding method to decouple the constraints of technology incompatibilities,the speed and performance of the elaborated genetic algorithm is greatly improved.This genetic algorithm can reduce automakers’ compliance cost.Based on this method,a comprehensive model for assessing China’s CAFC standards and cooperative policies is established.Technology cost,CAFC regulation system,cooperative policies,technology attributes and market information modules are integrated into this model.In addition to that,by using China’s passenger car market data in 2015,three main contributions are made: projection for fuel-efficient technology roadmaps towards complying with 2020~2030 CAFC standards,assessment on the inner attributes and mechanisms of the standards as well as the external cooperative policies.Several lessons can be learned from this study.(1)Under the baseline scenarios of year 2020,2025 and 2030 CAFC standards,the average compliance cost for passenger vehicles are 4363,14878 and 19745 yuan.While conventional fuel-efficient technologies are main contributors for meeting CAFC standards in 2020,new energy vehicles(NEV)are main contributors in year 2025 and 2030.Under the baseline scenarios of 2025 and 2030 CAFC standards,battery electric vehicles(BEV)account for 8.0% and 10.6% of the market,and plug-in electric vehicles(PHEV)account for 8.9% and 23.6%.(2)The attribute that CAFC is based on curb weight is not neutral to light-weighting technologies,which will impair the fuel saving target by 3.0%.A footprint based target function can eliminate this negative effect.Super credit scheme will promote the market penetration of targeted technologies at the cost of impairing the fuel saving target.It is recommended that super credit scheme for fuel-efficient vehicles be ceased by 2025 and super credit multiplier for NEV be modified to 1.4.(3)NEV subsidy can improve the market share of BEV to 3.6% by year 2020.Under the baseline scenario of dual credits scheme,the value of NEV credit is around 8800~9000 yuan and the one-way reimbursing scheme from NEV credit surplus to CAFC credit deficit is almost invalid.Automakers should get slightly overqualified for NEV credit requirement to reduce the risk of violation.