Study On The Passenger Flow Forecast And Analysis Of Dalian 202 Rail Transit Extension Line

As the city traffic congestion problem is increasingly serious,depending on large capacity,less pollution,safe and convenient,on time and comfortable characteristics,urban rail transit has become the main mode of transport to ease traffic congestion and environmental pollution,its planning construction and operation organization are importantly basing on the results of passenger flow forecast and analysis.202 rail transit extension line is the only one new rail transit line between central city and Lvshunkou in Dalian,for the vast difference between forecasting passenger flow in feasibility study report and actual passenger flow,this paper has carried on passenger flow forecast and analysis for the line in order to provide reliable basis for its operating plan.In the aspect of passenger flow prediction,on the basis of analyzing the line characteristics and the status quo of passenger flow,and combine with the applicable conditions of forecast method,the paper determines the passenger flow forecast methods for the line early operation and after linking to the metro line 1.At early operation,passenger flow forecast uses the four stage method which is based on three-time attraction,considering the influence of passenger flow attractive range at station and utility in different modes of transport,the paper improves forecasting methods in traffic production and traffic modal split stage and respectively comes up with three-time attractive method which is based on land utilization and LOGIT model which is based on generalized travel cost,getting passenger flow distribution in one day.After linking to the metro line 1,passenger flow forecast uses the four stage method which is based on passenger flow transfer,considering the change of population scale,land development intensity and resident trip characteristics,the paper modifies passenger flow forecast results of early operation to get passenger flow distribution in one day for this line,considering passenger flow transfer of other modes of transport,the paper improves forecasting methods in traffic modal split stage and comes up with passenger flow transfer method which is based on dissimilar measure,getting passenger flow distribution in one day for transfer.On this basis,the paper uses actual passenger flow to verify the rationality of passenger flow forecast results and forecast methods,and the indexes are analyzed with statistics.In the aspect of passenger flow analysis,based on the analysis of passenger flow forecast results,the paper studies the stability of the largest section traffic from the point of time and space distribution,and analyzes the passenger flow balance at time and space distribution.Then,the paper determines the risk of passenger flow by passenger flow concentration rate from the mature area and transfer station.Finally,the paper extracts the sensitive factor to analyze the sensitivity from passenger flow to single sensitive factors,on this basis,beginning to more sensitive factors analysis which refers to the economic internal rate of return on the evaluation of the multi-factor sensitivity analysis method,getting the range of variation of passenger flow.