The Application And Prediction Method Of Passenger Flow Of Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT)

With the development of China’s urban economy, private car ownership and usagecontinue to increase, resulting in decreased speed, increased pollution, urban trafficcongestion is worsening. Develop public transport and reduce car trips, to relieve urbantraffic congestion has become the consensus of the people.In recent years, many cities in the world is gradually promoting a new type of fast publictransport, known as the Bus Rapid Transit system (BRT). At the same time， as thetheoretical basis for BRT construction, traffic prediction is mentioned first.The purpose of this article is summing up an effective and viable BRT system passengerforecasting methods,and Providing the data basis and theoretical protection to the feasibilityof BRT study。This article first briefly describes the development of bus rapid transit systems aroundthe world, introduces the importance of the passenger traffic forecast on the construction ofurban rapid transit system，and presents the question to be resolved in the article. Then focuson the purpose of the study and gives a comparative analysis of prediction： First, surveys therequired traffic data, and introduces the five basic methods of investigation; then based on thesurvey data, divided according to land use and transportation district, establishes the basicpassenger model, and calibrats the model is mainly used multinomial Logit modelcalculations. Then forecast passenger traffic added in a four-stage prediction method in thecity after it has established the BRT corridor, then compares and analyzes the BRT routeoperational scenarios. The end of the article, use of a city as a case，forcastes the passengerflow and analyzes in detail the line on the city bus rapid transit system。...