Research On Passenger Flow Prediction And Analysis For Line 1 Of Lanzhou Rail Transit

In recent years,with the increasing improvement of people's living standards,the way of travel has gradually become diversified.There is a large population base in China,the number of urban vehicles increases year by year,and the urban scale is also expanding year by year,which makes traffic congestion a major problem for most cities in China.The number of car is increasing year by year in the cities,and the Urban Scale is gradually expanding,so these factors make traffic congestion become a major problem that plagues most cities in China.The key to solving the traffic problem is to increase efforts to build urban rail transit with large traffic volume,fast speed and Economic Space Occupation.However,the construction of urban rail transit is costly and has a strong comprehensiveness,and it is difficult to change that it is built.The network of Rail transit planning and construction layout of rail transit depends on the number of passenger flows and the composition of passenger flow.Therefore,scientific and reasonable prediction of passenger flow has become the top priority.Based on this background,this thesis takes Lanzhou Metro Line 1 passenger flow forecasting as the research object,analyzes the basic methods,forecasting models and forecasting results,and makes a concrete forecasting analysis combining theory with practical cases.The main contents of the thesis are as follows:(1)The research background and significance of the thesis as well as the research status at home and abroad on urban rail transit passenger flow prediction are analyzed in detail.The overall line network planning of Lanzhou Rail Transit and the specific situation of Lanzhou Rail Transit line 1 are introduced;(2)Based on the actual situation,this paper discusses the practical significance of urban rail transit passenger flow prediction,focusing on a series of factors affecting urban rail transit passenger flow prediction;(3)This thesis introduces the four stages of traffic generation,traffic distribution,traffic mode division and traffic distribution are introduced in detail,and the forecast passenger flow of Line 1,Lanzhou Rail transit is obtained by using the four-stage method;(4)The paper analyzes the results of passenger flow forecasting by four-stage method in depth,and obtains a more scientific forecast result.